Indian stock benchmarks Nifty and Sensex are down 10-12 per cent in 2026 so far, with the indices virtually where they were in 2024. The market is fearful of geopolitical uncertainty including rising crude oil prices, the US-Iran war, hardening US bond yields, among others. But is it time to be fearful?
The June quarter delivered the broadest earnings acceleration in ten quarters. Nifty's profit after tax grew at its fastest pace in 10 consecutive quarters, prompting Motilal Oswal, PhillipCapital and other brokerages to raise FY27 estimates, while the broader market ran hotter, still midcap and smallcap companies reported an average 20 per cent and 28 per cent profit growth, PL Asset Management noted on Monday.
"Two straight quarters of double-digit growth — 18 per cent in Q4 FY26, accelerating further in Q1 FY27 — mark a regime shift from FY26's slower single-digit pace. Real GFCF grew 11.9 per cent, confirming a genuine investment-cycle pickup rather than a one-off beat," PL Asset Management said.
It said Indian equities are no longer uniformly expensive, with large-cap valuation comfort improving even as pockets of the broader market stay demanding.
“Price is what you pay; value is what you get”
Buffett learnt this important lesson from Benjamin Graham. It suggested the market price of an asset does not always reflect its true worth of the company.
In a similar Indian context, Kotak Institutional Equities last week noted that there was a disconnect between price and value in several largecap stocks including ITC, HDFC Bank and ONGC. For example, it said HDFC Bank traded at more or less ex-growth multiples despite delivering 10 per cent earnings per share CAGR over FY2024-26 with expectation of 12 per cent EPS CAGR over FY2026-209 and 14.2 per cent return on equity (RoE) over FY2026-29.
"We find significant value in many largecap stocks after the sharp price and time correction in stocks over the past few months or years as the case may be. However, stocks may languish for a while despite stocks trading at attractive valuations and offering large potential upsides to their fair values," it said.
“Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”
At the end of June quarter, Buffett's Berkshire was sitting on $350.96 billion cash and cash equivalents. He in a 2009 annual letter said big opportunities come infrequently and one should be ready for it.
"We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business – through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market – and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two," Buffett said in his 2009 annual letter.
In the Indian context, Nifty has been oscillating between flat and negative for the past two years after rallying 54 per cent within a year-and-a-half in the previous bull-market phase of March 2023–September 2024.
"The flat market since has spurred the 5-year CAGR to retreat to 6 per cent. Sub- par returns underscore low investor optimism, ergo, a potential positive for prospective returns from a behavioural angle, especially now as the fog on nominal earnings seems to be clearing and, thus, revealing a path for growth," ICICI Securities said on September 18.
It noted that two similar periods of flat markets, lasting 2–3 years, had punctuated the past decade as well, before eventually catalysing returns in the ensuing periods: January 2015–2017, following the post-bull-market phase of the incumbent’s election victory; and October 2021–May 2023, following the post-Covid-19 recovery-led bull market.