Adani Green, Adani Energy Solutions: 2 Adani stocks sees 35-47% upside targets

ICICI Securities has suggested 'Buy' on two Adani stocks namely Adani Green Energy Ltd and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd post their December quarter earnings. The domestic brokerage said Adani Energy Solutions reported an-line quarter, as  transmission capitalisation lagged, but expected to step jump in the near-term. Adani Green Energy's Q3 results were marred by curtailment and weak merchant pricing. Overall, the brokerage suggested 47 per cent upside target for Adani Green Energy and 35 per cent upside target for Adani Energy Solutions. 

Adani Green has commissioned 3GW of renewables capacity in 9MFY26 and 6GW in the last 12 months. As a result, operational capacity reached 17.2GW, up 48 per cent YoY. However, generation was up 35 per cent YoY due to lower grid availability and lower wind PLFs, especially impacting the power plant with short-term grid connectivity, ICICI Securities said.

"Also, Adani Green sold 46 per cent of power on a merchant basis, impacted by low demand. Thus, it reported Ebitda of Rs 2,240 crore (versus our estimate of Rs 2,360 crore). It expects grid connectivity to improve in coming months and is installing BESS of 15GWh by FY27, which would improve merchant realisation. We trim our Ebitda estimate for FY26 to Rs 10,700 crore vs Rs 11,600 crore earlier. We maintain Buy; target price revised to Rs 1,140," it said.

On Adani Energy Solutions, ICICI Securities noted that the company reported a steady set of Q3FY26 results, with Ebitda largely in-line with its estimate. 

ICICI Securities said the underlying operating revenue and Ebitda rose 8 per cent and 14 per cent YoY, mainly owing to an increase in installed base of smart meters. Adani Energy's execution pipeline is growing stronger, it said adding that the HVDC project win in Q3FY26 took the transmission pipeline to Rs 78,000 crore (1.4 times YoY). 

"There have been delays in some of the transmission projects scheduled for FY26 commissioning; however, AESL guided for capitalisation worth Rs 24,000–25,000 crore in the next 14-15 months. Smart meter installation is going strong and AESL is likely to surpass its guided level of 10 million installations by March 2026. Maintain Buy," it said.   

This brokerage suggested a new target price of Rs 1,100 for the stock.