Adani Green Energy: Buy, hold or sell Adani stock AGEL post 25% slide in Jan?

Adani Green share price: Less-than-expected December quarter results dragged Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) by 15 per cent on Friday, taking its total fall for January to 25 per cent. The stock was also hit, as the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) reportedly sought a court permission to personally email summons to Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani over alleged fraud and bribery scheme.

On Q3 earnings, Emkay Global said AGEL faced curtailment issues in Q3FY26 due to seasonality, but the situation is expected to improve in Q4.

"AGEL’s consolidated Q3FY26 Ebitda rose 19 per cent YoY to Rs 2,240 crore, led by 49 per cent YoY uptick in operational capacity to 17.2GW. YoY power sales growth was slower at 35 per cent, as CUFs (especially wind CUF) were hit by seasonality, besides lower grid availability due to curtailment in solar," It said.

The brokerage largely retained its FY27-28E earnings, but lowered FY26 Ebitda by 14 per cent, factoring in the 9MFY26 run-rate and curtailment challenges.

"We roll forward to December 2026, cutting our target price by 10 per cent to Rs 1,350 from Rs 1,500 at 12 times EV/Ebitda (13 times earlier); retain Buy," it said. The stock settled at Rs 772.10 on Friday. 

Emkay Global noted that 2-3GW of transmission capacity augmentation at Khavda, earlier slated for Q3, was delayed to Q4, with another 1GW by March 2026, while 10GW capacity augmentation is expected in FY27. 

"Book realisation declined 2 per cent QoQ, on lower merchant tariffs, as solar/wind tariffs reduced to Rs 2.20/3.50 per kWh. AGEL plans deploying 3.5GWh of battery storage by FY26-end and add 2 times this capacity in FY27. The FY27 run rate-Ebitda guidance is Rs 17,000 crore (power supply: Rs 16,000 crore), while capex target is Rs 35,000-40,000 crore," Emkay Global said. 

Meanwhile, Adani Green Energy in an exchange said that counsel for Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani are in discussions with the SEC on procedural matters regarding the SEC’s motion and the concerned court has been requested not to decide the SEC’s motion pending the filing of an application.

Adani Green Energy further noted that the company is not a party to these civil proceedings, and no charges have been brought against Adani Green Energy.

"Defendants have not been charged with violation/(s) of the United States Foreign Corrupt Practices Act i.e. there
are no charges of bribery or corruption against the Defendants" Adani Green clarified.