Gold price headed for Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams? All eyes on US inflation, Fed cues

Gold prices are showing signs of recovery, but whether the momentum will continue depends on upcoming US inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and geopolitical developments. Investors are closely tracking these factors, along with key technical levels, to assess the next move in precious metals.

On October 14, 2026, at around 9:30 am, MCX Gold futures were trading at ₹1,48,482 per 10 grams, up 0.02%. MCX Silver futures stood at ₹2,19,357 per kilogram, gaining 0.06%.

In the international market, gold futures were trading at $4,186.57 per ounce, up 0.22%. Silver futures, however, were down 0.11% at $59.463 per ounce.

US Inflation Data and Fed Policy in focus

According to Amit Gupta, Senior Research Head at Kedia Advisory, gold recovered from the previous session’s decline as investors awaited US consumer inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

New York Fed President John Williams indicated that another interest rate hike may be needed this year to bring inflation under control. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said rising bond yields reflected stronger economic growth rather than increasing inflation expectations.

Gupta’s note cited market expectations of a 23% chance of an October rate hike and an 88% probability of a December increase. These figures represent market-implied probabilities, not confirmed Fed decisions.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East are supporting oil prices and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold and Silver: Key Levels to Watch

Technically, international gold could test $4,200 per ounce if it sustains above the $4,150 level. In the domestic market, MCX Gold has a target of ₹1,50,000 per 10 grams, according to Gupta.

For international silver, $58.20 per ounce is a key support level, while the potential target is $61 per ounce. MCX Silver could move towards ₹2,24,000 per kilogram.

Going forward, US inflation data, signals on the Fed’s interest rate path and geopolitical developments are likely to remain key drivers of precious metals. These levels are market outlook estimates, not guaranteed price outcomes.