Vodafone Idea share price targets: What JPMorgan, MOFSL, UBS, Nomura say as stock falls 4%

Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL) shares fell 4 per cent in Friday's trade following the telecom operator's September quarter results. Brokerages such as Nomura, UBS and MOFSL have 'Neutral' ratings on the stock, while Ambit Capital has a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 18.70 apiece, implying 44 per cent potential upside. Axis Capital and JPMorgan retained their 'Reduce' and 'Underweight' ratings, respectively. Axis Capital's target price of Rs 31.21 suggests 5 per cent potential upside.

The Vodafone Idea stock fell 3.54 per cent to hit a low of Rs 12.52 apiece.

JPMorgan noted that Vodafone Idea's Q2 results were in line with its expectations on the revenue front but marginally missed consensus estimates on Ebitda. MOFSL also said the results were in line with its expectations, noting that capex surged as tower additions accelerated.

Revenue grew 2 per cent sequentially, while Ebitda declined 1 per cent and came in 2-3 per cent below consensus estimates. VIL's Ebitda margin declined 115 basis points (bps) to 41.9 per cent, 120 bps below consensus estimates.

The growth was led by a 1 per cent increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) to Rs 178, in line with JPMorgan's estimate, and subscriber growth of 1 per cent, 30 bps higher than its estimate. Net subscriber additions came in at 13 lakh, higher than JPMorgan's estimate of 7 lakh, driven by higher machine-to-machine (M2M) net additions of 1.76 million in Q2FY27, according to TRAI data.

JPMorgan said ARPU growth was helped by seasonality, including one extra day in the quarter. Capital expenditure at Rs 3,950 crore increased 105 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and was broadly in line with its estimate of Rs 4,000 crore. It suggested a target of Rs 9 on the VIL stock.

"The key issue for the stock remains the absence of bank funding, which is crucial for capex and sustaining share. We remain Underweight," JPMorgan said.

MOFSL said VIL's deferred spectrum and AGR dues stood at Rs 1.31 lakh crore and Rs 26,300 crore, respectively, while external debt stood at Rs 4,540 crore. Cash and cash equivalents declined to Rs 5,470 crore from Rs 6,560 crore QoQ, leading to a Rs 3,400 crore QoQ increase in net debt to Rs 1.57 lakh crore. Q2 capex surged to Rs 3,950 crore from Rs 1,930 crore in Q1.

VIL management highlighted that the company had raised Rs 10,500 crore through the issuance of warrants and funded and non-funded limits. It has also placed orders for Rs 13,200 crore of capex as part of its Rs 45,000 crore capex target.