HDFC Bank shares to see 57% upside? Bernstein targets for ICICI, Axis, KMB, SBI, IIB

Bernstein in its latest note on the banking sector suggested 'Outperform' on HDFC Bank Ltd, ICICI Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd and IndusInd Bank Ltd, with  targets suggesting up to 57 per cent potential upside on the counters. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd (KMB) and State Bank of India are rated 'Market perform' the brokerage said.

The foreign brokerage said there is a debate, more so than the macro backdrop, around intra-sector dynamics, with private banks yet to see a meaningful recovery in market share while PSBs are starting to see their relative outperformance wane.

"We expect the banking sector to sustain healthy growth in FY27, supported by robust liquidity conditions and a recovery in nominal credit growth, although potential policy tightening could moderate momentum later in the year. Margin outlook remains stable, with deposit repricing largely behind us and any rate hikes likely to provide an incremental boost to NIMs," Bernstein said.

It said asset quality is expected to remain benign, supporting stable credit costs and earnings resilience. Within the sector, private banks are likely to continue narrowing the growth gap with public sector banks, it said adding that the latter's greater reliance on borrowings could weigh on relative margin performance.

For HDFC Bank, Bernstein suggested a target of Rs 1,150, which at Friday's intraday price of Rs 730.75 implied 57 per cent upside potential. It gave targets of Rs 1,800 for ICICI Bank, Rs 1,600 for Axis Bank, Rs 500 for KMB, Rs 1,300 for SBI and Rs 1,000 for IndusInd Bank.

"We rate ICICI, Axis, HDFC and IIB as Outperform; KMB and SBI as Market-Perform. We update our models for Axis, KMB and SBI to reflect the latest quarterly numbers and make modest changes to our assumption on growth and margins. All encompassing, our changes result in less than 2 per cent change to our EPS estimates with no change to our target prices," Bernstein said.

At an aggregate level, the sector appears to be in a sweet spot, with loan growth at a 4+ year high, margin risks easing with improving system liquidity. Asset quality remained benign despite macro volatility. "Coupled with undemanding valuations, the setup looks
compelling," Bernstein said.

The foreign brokerage said while the revised LCR framework provided greater benefits to PSBs, the relatively narrow gap in LCRs suggests limited room for sustained growth outperformance versus private banks. Consequently, PSBs delivered a sequential improvement in RoA, while profitability trends across PVBs remained mixed.