HUL shares: Why analyst prefers Marico, Nestle to the FMCG sector leader in short term

HUL shares: Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) may not be the right FMCG bet for traders seeking quick gains over the next month, but the stock could still reward patient investors over a longer holding period, market expert Pradeep Halder said, drawing a clear distinction between short-term momentum plays and medium-term value opportunities.

Halder told BTTV that HUL-the market leader in the FMCG sector-is currently better suited for investors with an 8-12 month view rather than those looking for an immediate rally. His comments come at a time when broader market sentiment remains constructive, even as sectoral leadership continues to shift.

Short-term traders may need to stay cautious

He argued that FMCG stocks typically do not deliver sharp rallies within a 15-day to one-month window. That makes HUL less attractive for short-duration traders, especially when the market is rewarding stocks showing stronger technical breakouts. In other words, the stock may be fundamentally sound, but timing remains critical.

Value zone offers longer-term comfort

While near-term upside may be limited, Halder struck a more constructive tone on HUL’s medium-term setup. “If you have a 8 to 12 months investment horizon, Hindustan Unilever is likely to deliver 15% to 20% returns,” he said.

That assessment suggests HUL is in an accumulation phase rather than a momentum phase. For investors willing to wait, the current levels could offer an entry point into a quality FMCG name that may take time to re-rate.

Why Marico and Nestle look stronger now

Halder said his top FMCG preferences at this stage are Marico and Nestle India. On Marico, he pointed to strong recent results and encouraging management guidance, adding that the market has responded positively. He pegged a target of Rs 940 on the stock.

On Nestle India, he said the technical setup looks stronger across “daily, weekly as well as monthly” charts. According to him, both Marico and Nestle are in the breakout territory, making them better positioned for quicker upside than HUL.

Base-building versus breakout

The core of Halder’s argument lies in technical structure. “There is a breakout at these two stocks and in Hindustan Unilever, formation of base is in progress,” he said. He added that he prefers buying either at breakout points or during base formation, but breakout stocks tend to move faster.

That leaves HUL in a slower-burn category for now: stable, potentially rewarding, but unlikely to surge immediately. For investors, the takeaway is straightforward — HUL may be a patience trade, while Marico and Nestle India appear to be the sharper FMCG momentum plays at this point.