IOC Q4 results preview: What to expect from Indian Oil on Monday? Earnings, dividend announcement tomorrow

IOC Q4 results: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) is set to release its audited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026 on Monday, May 18. According to stock exchange filing, the state-run refiner's board would meet on tomorrow to approve the financials and consider the declaration of a final dividend for FY26. 

The stock has declined about 22% in the last six months. In the last session on Friday, the counter closed 4.06% lower at Rs 134.55 per share on BSE.

What to expect?

Earlier in April preview notes, both JM Financial and PL Capital expect a sequential decline in IOC's bottom line, driven primarily by severe pressure on marketing margins.  JM Financial projects IOC's Q4 sales at Rs 2.70 lakh crore, up 16.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). However, the brokerage estimates a 6.7% QoQ drop in EBITDA to Rs 19,436 crore and a 9.8% sequential dip in profit after tax (PAT) to Rs 10,940 crore. 

PL Capital forecast Q4 EBITDA at Rs 16,140 crore, marking a 24.2% QoQ decline, and PAT at Rs 8,640 crore, down 31.3% QoQ. 

PL Capital expects IOC's marketing margins to remain under severe pressure at a negative Rs 1.5 per litre, driven by elevated crude prices amid the US-Iran war and continued retail price controls, leading to higher under-recoveries. 

JM Financial noted this margin plunged to Rs 1.7 per litre in Q4 from Rs 5.2 in the previous quarter. This sharp drop is attributed to a QoQ spike in crude prices in rupee terms, exacerbated by Middle East supply disruptions, it noted.