ITC stock closes FY26 at 52-week low, shareholders lose over Rs 2 lakh crore; buy, sell or hold?

ITC share price: Shares of FMCG major ITC ended FY26 at a fresh 52-week low on Monday. ITC shares hit a 52 week low of Rs 287 in the previous session. Later, the stock closed at Rs 287.70, down 2.39% against Friday's close of Rs 294.75. Market cap of the firm slipped to Rs 3.60 lakh crore. Total 32.69 lakh shares of the FMCG firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 94.69 crore on BSE. 

ITC stock fell 30% in FY26 with 70% of correction coming alone in 2026. Investors lost nearly Rs 2.36  lakh crore in the current financial year or FY26.

The selloff this year came after the government announced excise duty hike on cigarettes. 

Indirect taxes on cigarettes increased sharply in February 2026, following the replacement of the compensation cess with GST and higher excise duties, 

ITC shares are trading below all the long term and short term moving averages. 

The stock is nearing the oversold zone on charts with its RSI standing at 30.7 mark. An RSI below 30 signals a stock is oversold on charts. 

In the long term, shares of ITC are down 29.03% in two years and 20.50% in three years. 

Morgan Stanley has an equal-weight stance on ITC with a price target of Rs 346. 

The brokerage said sharp tax increases are unprecedented & lead to uncertainty. According to the brokerage, incremental pricing actions and impact on volumes and EBIT growth in 1QF27 could be key catalysts.

Goldman Sachs has pared its price target to Rs 330 against the earlier target of Rs 385. With a neutral stance on the ITC stock, The brokerage expects earnings projection cut to factor in calibrated price increases and the impact of input costs. Referring to the recent price hike of cigarettes, the brokerage said it has built in calibrated price increases rather than a one-shot price hike to pass on the tax hike. 

It also sees lower Q4 earnings given the larger than expected impact on cigarette margins and input cost impact on FMCG margins. 

On the other hand, UBS has a price target of Rs 395 on the ITC stock with a buy call. The brokerage is of the view that new prices should protect volumes. The company has adopted a three-pronged pricing strategy to protect volumes. It has ensured a same-price option across all sensitive variants, which should largely limit volume impact. However, ITC is likely to exceed the bearish consensus expectations for FY27