Kotak Bank tops Nifty EPS upgrades in Sept; ONGC, Tata Motors, RIL, Trent lead cuts

A total of 18 out of 50 Nifty companies saw cuts in FY26 earnings estimates, while 13 Nifty others saw upgrades in FY26 EPS. The earnings upgrades were led by Kotak Mahindra Bank (6.6 per cent), followed by Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Maruti Suzuki India (1.8 per cent), Eicher Motors (1.8 per cent) and Tata Steel (1.4 per cent). Downgrades were led by ONGC (3.3 per cent), JSW Steel (2.4 per cent), Tata Motors (1.8 per cent), Reliance Industries (1.1 per cent) and Trent (0.9 per cent), data compiled by JM Financial suggested. 

The domestic brokerage noted that Nifty50 has delivered a negative return of 4.6 per cent in the past 12 months, but witnessed FY26 and FY27 EPS have seen cuts of 10 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. 

For September, EPS estimates for FY26E and FY27E saw a month on month decrease of 2.5 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. In the case of Kotak Mahindra Bank, MOFSL said while the current year performance to remain modest, it nevertheless estimated the bank to deliver 20 per cent earnings over FY26-28. This in context to reasonable valuations will aid stock performance, it said.

M&M, Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors recently saw EPS upgrades on GST cuts. Sharekhan said it is positive on Maruti, as volumes will regain pace going forward, led by GST rate cuts, festive demand and new launches. MOFSL named Maruti Suzuki as its top auto pick, driven by new launches and strong exports, and also liked Mahindra & Mahindra, citing an uptrend in tractors and steady growth in utility vehicles.

In the case of Tata Steel, PL Capital said there is scope for upside risk to its Ebitda PER tonne assumptions for Tata Steel, as the safeguard duty effectively set a floor for domestic pricing, and improving demand would lead to higher prices in domestic parlance. 

"The number of Nifty companies that saw an EPS cut decreased from 60 per cent in August 2025 to 36 per cent in September, with Oil & Gas, Pharmaceuticals, Consumer, Metals & Mining, Utilities, Insurance and NBFCs being key contributors. The stocks that saw the biggest EPS cuts include ONGC, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries and Trent, while stocks that saw the largest upgrades include Kotak Mahindra Bank, M&M, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors and Tata Steel," JM said. 

Emkay Global said ONGC’s KG-98/2 crude oil output seemed to have seen a slight gradual decline rate, with Q2 average likely to be 31-32kbpd. Gas ramp-up awaits CPP and LQUP commissioning, with current run rate likely to be 3mmscmd. It retained its target for ONGC at Rs 280, adjusting multiples to account for oil price uncertainty.

Morgan Stanley last week called the JSW Steel stock a tactical buy. "China anti-involution playing out and global macro factors turning favorable. Additionally, there is optionality in play if safeguard duty gets extension. Against this backdrop, JSW Steel is well positioned, given its high share of domestic business skewed in favor of flat steel, with margin expansion in play from HRC price expansion and strong volume growth. We expect the stock to do well despite rich valuations," it said.

In the case of Tata Motors, recent cyberattack and a likely liquidity hit due to production halt at JLR, weighed on the automaker's prospects. Tata Motors' domestic demand remained strong, but many analysts maintained 'neutral' to 'reduce' stance on stock due to muted growth prospects in JLR.