MCX share price target as ICICI Securities sees Q3 profit rising 100% QoQ

ICICI Securities revised its target price on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) upward to Rs 12,500 per share from Rs 10,000 earlier, while retaining its ‘Add’ rating, citing sustained momentum in trading volumes and heightened commodity volatility as key near-term drivers.

MCX has been witnessing strong positive volume momentum, reflected in robust growth during Q3FY26 and 9MFY26. ICICI Securities expects profit after tax in Q3FY26 to jump nearly 100 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). While structural enablers such as capital-efficient product design, the growing role of digital brokers, and scope for higher penetration remain supportive, the brokerage noted that commodity volatility is currently the overriding driver of volumes, a trend observed across global commodity exchanges.

At 12 pm, the scrip was trading at Rs 11,158.15 apiece, up 2.41 per cent.

Despite the strong momentum, ICICI Securities remained cautious about assuming sustained volume growth over the medium term. It estimated futures average daily traded value (ADTV) at Rs 70,000 crore and options premium ADTV at Rs 7,000 crore for FY27, rising to Rs 83,000 crore and Rs 8,200 crore, respectively, in FY28. This compares with futures ADTV of Rs 92,800 crore and options premium ADTV of Rs 7,800 crore recorded in December 2025.

The brokerage highlighted that MCX futures ADTV, which averaged around Rs 20,000 crore in FY24, Rs 27,000 crore in FY25, and Rs 41,200 crore in H1FY26, had jumped to Rs 89,600 crore in October 2025. While ICICI Securities had previously expressed caution over the sustainability of such levels, November and December 2025 data suggest the trend has held, with futures ADTV at Rs 68,400 crore in November and Rs 92,800 crore in December to date.

A similar pattern was seen in options, where premium ADTV, which averaged Rs 1,700 crore in FY24, Rs 3,100 crore in FY25, and Rs 4,200 crore in H1FY26, rose to Rs 6,900 crore in October 2025, remaining firm at Rs 6,500 crore in November and Rs 7,800 crore in December.

ICICI Securities valued MCX at 40 times FY28E core earnings per share of Rs 305, excluding investment income net of taxes, and added free cash of Rs 294 per share (investments excluding margin money, settlement guarantee fund, and regulatory capital), resulting in a revised target price of Rs 12,500, up from Rs 10,000. The brokerage noted that continued volume momentum poses upside risk to its estimates.