Meesho shares: JM sees huge headroom for growth, but no upside capped; here's why

Domestic brokerage firm JM Financial has initiated coverage Meesho, one of India’s largest horizontal value-commerce marketplaces. Built around a zero-commission, asset-light model, Meesho predominantly serves mass-market, price-sensitive consumers in tier 2 and smaller cities, enabling SMEs and local manufacturers to reach a broad online audience.

As of 1HFY26, the platform shipped approximately 1.1 billion orders to 234 million shoppers, supported by roughly 706,000 active sellers. JM Financial’s report highlights this scale and reach as central to Meesho’s success, underlining its position as the largest e-commerce player in India by order volumes and annual transacting users.

A standout feature is Meesho’s in-house logistics platform, Valmo, which, according to JM Financial, orchestrated fulfilment for around 66% of shipped orders in 2QFY26 by integrating over 18,000 logistics partners. This asset-light logistics orchestration has led to a significant reduction in fulfilment costs, opening up additional e-commerce categories previously considered unviable for online retail.

Shares of Meesho Ltd jumped 5 per cent to Rs 173.3 on Friday, with total market capitalization nearing Rs 78,000 crore. The stock has corrected nearly 35 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 254.65, hit on December 18, 2025. The stock is down 6 per cent on a year-to-date basis.

Listed on December 10, 2025, Meesho raised a total of Rs 5,421 crore via IPO, which was sold for Rs 111 apiece, with a lot size of 135 equity shares. The stock soared around 130 per cent from its issue price within a week, before witnessing the correction. Even after the recent fall, the stock is 56 per cent up from its IPO price.

Meesho’s value proposition is further defined by its focus on ‘everyday low prices’, having reached 234 million customers—nearly 90% of India’s annual e-commerce shoppers—who transact an average of ten times annually. The platform’s hyper-personalised, discovery-led shopping journeys mirror offline market experiences, aiding seamless transitions for consumers new to e-commerce.

JM Financial’s report identifies several potential risks for Meesho, including the possibility of logistics cost plateauing, increased competitive pressure, and restricted monetisation from advertising. Conversely, possible upside factors include expanded monetisation through content and financing, accelerated growth, and a ramp-up in commission revenue through Meesho Mall.

Meesho is positioned within a competitive landscape that includes major horizontal players in the Indian e-commerce space, with JM Financial noting that Meesho’s cost-over-speed logistics and deep penetration in unbranded categories position it to compete as much with offline retail as with other online platforms. The brokerage underscores Meesho’s ongoing role as a key enabler of India’s e-commerce growth and as a first digital commerce platform for a significant portion of the population.

JM Financial has got a 'reduce' rating on Meesho with a target price of Rs 170. "While Meesho’s business remains differentiated with huge headroom for growth, valuations remain stretched at CMP. New buyers need to be wary of significant supply post 6-month lock-in expiry," he said.