Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 44 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices were set to open little lower on Tuesday as firmer crude oil prices curbed risk appetite, offsetting support from stronger corporate earnings and renewed foreign ​buying. Oil prices held firm as hopes for a ​US-Iran peace agreement faded. Higher crude oil prices pose a FII outflow ​challenge for India.

Market momentum is likely to remain constructive this week, with the final leg of the Q1 earnings season set to drive both stock-specific and broader market action. Developments around the US-Iran negotiations, crude oil prices and US inflation data will remain key drivers of market direction and risk appetite, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 44.20 points, or 0.18 per cent, down at 24,615.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian shares drifted on protracted uncertainty over the global inflation outlook. Nikkei gained more than 2 per cent, while KOSPI rose nearly half a per cent. Hang Seng edged lower.

The US stocks closed lower on Monday, with declines in Intel and other chipmakers, as ​investors became less confident about a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 declined 0.06 per cent to end the session at 7,753.12 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.32 per cent to 26,605.36 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.11 per cent to 53,976.04 points.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Brent crude futures edged up to hit $88.00 per barrel and US crude futures ticked up to $82.45, both the highest levels since July ​31, after the contracts rallied roughly 5 per cent on Monday. The dollar got a marginal lift from the renewed climb in oil prices. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent to $4,409.81 an ounce.

Investor sentiment remained supported by softer-than-expected US jobs data, which reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes and provided some relief to global risk assets, said Ajit Mishra , SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to advocate a 'buy-on-dips' strategy, with a preference for relatively stronger sectors and stocks while maintaining disciplined risk and position management."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,290.29 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,974.76 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market hovered throughout the day between 24,500/78,300 and 24,650/78,700 price ranges. A small candle on daily charts and non-directional activity on intraday charts indicate indecisiveness between the bulls and bears, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For traders now, 24,650/78,800 and 24,700/79,000 would act as immediate breakout levels. Above these, the market could rally to 24,800–24,850 / 79,300–79,500. On the flip side, below 24,500/78,300, selling pressure may accelerate. Below this, the market could retest levels of 24,400–24,350 / 78,000–77,800," it added.

Sensex formed a green daily candle, indicating modest buying interest. If faced resistance near the 200-day EMA around 78,624, limiting the upside. A decisive close above this level could improve the technical structure and provide further upward momentum, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research, at Choice Broking. "The outlook remains sideways to bullish, with Sensex consolidating near an important technical hurdle."

The near- to short-term trend remains sideways to positive, as Nifty50 has been sustaining above the critical short-term 50EMA. The 24,650 remains a key resistance; a decisive move above this level might induce a sustained rally in the market, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "On the lower end, support is placed at 24,500, below which weakness might intensify. We expect range-bound movement."

The RSI is placed at 56, reflecting steady momentum. India VIX settled at 12.24, continuing to indicate a low-volatility during intraday, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty Bank outlook
Bank Nifty formed a second consecutive bearish candle with shadows in either direction, indicating profit booking at higher levels as the index continues to consolidate in a range. The index remained within last week’s 57,300–58,300 range, with 58,000 continuing to act as an immediate hurdle, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"We expect it to extend the consolidation. Within the consolidation index holding above 57,500–57,300 would keep the near-term bias constructive and could trigger a pullback towards 58,300, followed by 58,700 levels. On the downside, a decisive break below 57,500–57,300 would signal extended corrective move towards the 56,500, which is the lower band of the consolidation channel," it adds.

From a technical standpoint, the 58,000-58,100 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for Nifty Bank. A decisive breakout above 58,100 would signal a resumption of the prevailing uptrend and could open the doors for a fresh rally towards 58,600, followed by 59,200 over the short term, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

"On the downside, the 50-day EMA, currently placed near the 57,100-57,000 region, is expected to provide strong support. As long as the index sustains above this support band, the broader bullish structure is likely to remain intact despite the ongoing consolidation," it added.