RIL share price targets: What JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Jefferies, CLSA say

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has received 'Buy' recommendations from a majority brokerages including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Citi  and Jefferies post its June quarter results, with the consensus target price now suggesting 24 per cent potential upside for the oil-to-telecom major. Out of the 20 analyst updates on the stock post Q1, the highest target stood at Rs 1,870 apiece by Goldman Sachs, which though is lower than Rs 1,910 the foreign brokerage suggested in March earlier this year. Core Ebitda was broadly in line with expectations, the foreign brokerage said.

The lowest target on the stock stood at Rs 1,510 by Macquarie, which kept its 'Outperform' rating on the stock intact, Bloomberg data compiled by Business Today suggests. This brokerage believes the June earnings results and the management commentary point to upside risk to consensus for Jio/Digital Services and Retail.  

The RIL scrip settled at Rs 1,327.20 on Friday.

Among other foreign brokerages, JPMorgan suggested 'Overweight' with a target of Rs 1,660. Jefferies said 'Buy' stock for a target of Rs 1.705. Nomura and Citi have a similar rating with a target of Rs 1,690 each. CLSA finds the stock worth Rs 1,800, as  it finds Q1 numbers ahead of estimates on beat in O2C and higher other income, which negated miss in retail and higher interest expenses.
 
Elara Securities noted that Reliance Industries shares have dropped 4 per cent in the past three months, in-line with the benchmark Nifty index. Strong middle-distillate cracks and visibility on Jio IPO offset concerns over elevated crude premiums, SAED/under-recoveries in domestic fuel retailing, and Retail margin dilution due to Digital Commerce investments. 

"Q1FY27 was a better quarter than Q4FY26, as strong crack environment started reflecting in robust O2C Ebitda. We raise FY27, FY28 and FY29 Ebitda estimates by 6-8 per cent, reflecting weaker rupee, stronger refining earnings and sustained momentum in Digital Services. However, higher interest cost, depreciation and near-term Retail margin dilution absorb most of the operating upgrade in FY27," Elara Securities said while suggesting a target of Rs 1,619 on RIL. 

A rebound in energy profitability offset softer performance in Retail, said MOFSL. 

Overall, it built in a growth of 9-10 per cent in RIL’s consolidated Ebitda and profit over FY26-28, as it did not build in any meaningful earnings contribution from RIL’s forays in New Energy, Datacentre, AI, and FMCG businesses in the near term.

"We model an annual consolidated capex of Rs 1.3 lakh  for RIL over FY26-28E, as the moderation in RJio capex is likely to be offset by higher capex in New Energy and AI/Datacenter forays. However, we believe the peak of capex is behind, which should lead to healthy FCF generation," it said while suggesting a lower target of Rs 1,550 on the stock. 

Emkay Global RIL's Retail revenue grew 12 per cent YoY, while Ebitda missed its estimate by 10 per cent as margins contracted on continued scale-up of hyperlocal delivery business. That said, the management reiterated its target of doubling Ebitda by FY29. 

"Despite slightly lower-than-expected subscriber adds and ARPU, Jio saw margin expansion, supported by operating leverage. Reported net debt was down 1 per cent QoQ at Rs 1.23 lakh crore, while Q1 capex stood at Rs 38,700 crore. The management is constructive on O2C. We retain FY28E/29E EPS while raising FY27E EPS by 2 per cent on stronger O2C earnings, partly offset by weaker Retail. We raise our capex estimate. We rollover to Jun-28E earnings; retain BUY/TP of Rs 1,680," Emkay said.