Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 50 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stock markets are headed for a muted start on Thursday ahead of the expiry of April series contract amid absence of any major global trigger. However, traders will be keenly watching for the cues from the US-China trade tariffs, quarterly results and Jerome Powell's tussle with President Trump.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 53.20 points, or 0.22 per cent, lower at 24,259.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks were mostly mixed as investors tried to sift through the noise from the Trump administration and its fickle stance on tariffs and the Federal Reserve's leadership.

In the Asian pack, Japan's Nikkei gained 0.95 per cent, while Australia's ASX 200 rose 0.6 per cent. New Zealand's DJ was up 0.7 per cent. Shanghai Composite rose one-third a per cent. However, South Korea's KOSPI dropped 0.65 per cent, while Hong Kong Hang Seng shed 0.52 per cent in the early trade on Thursday.

Wall Street stocks advanced on Wednesday on revived hopes for progress in the US-China trade dispute and as President Donald Trump soothed fears the Federal Reserve could lose its autonomy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.07 per cent to 39,606.57, the S&P 500 gained 1.67 per cent to 5,375.86 and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.50 per cent to 16,708.05.

While US-China trade tensions appear to be easing, a rally in US tech stocks has further bolstered overall global market sentiment, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. "The mixed domestic Q4 earnings and uptick in crude prices, along with the recent outperformance of the domestic market, can trigger some consolidation in the near term," he added.

Oil prices ticked up early on Thursday, with investors weighing a potential OPEC+ output increase against conflicting tariff signals from the White House and ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Brent crude futures rose 0.09 per cent, to $66.18 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.11 per cent, to $62.34 a barrel.

The dollar took a breather on Thursday, following a sharp bounce after President Donald Trump backed away from threats to fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and his administration opened the door to a softer stance on China tariffs. Gold resumed its advance towards a record high, with the yellow metal last up more than a per cent at $3,329.03 an ounce.

A mixed trend across sectors kept traders engaged, with IT and auto performing well, while banking and financials witnessed some profit-taking, said Ajit Mishra SVP of Research at Religare Broking. He recommended continuing with a 'buy on dips' approach. "We believe a focus on stock-specific opportunities could be more rewarding in a consolidation phase, he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,332.93 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,234.46 crore.

Nifty Outlook
Nifty has confirmed a bullish structure by surpassing the February–March swing highs near 23,900 and decisively moving above the long-term 200-DSMA at 24,000. This breakout signals bullish dominance, with intraday dips being actively bought into, said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst, Angel One, advising traders against chasing momentum at higher levels.

"We believe that as long as the market is trading above 24,150/79,500, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the upside, it could move up to the range of 24,450-24,500/80,300-80,500. Conversely, if it falls below 24,150/79,500, we can see a short term  correction down to the 24,050-24,000/79,200-79,000 range," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has formed a big bearish candle on the daily charts, which has completely engulfed the previous day's candle, signalling a potential reversal and indicating underlying weakness in the near term, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates.

"Going forward, 56,000-56,100 will act as a stiff resistance for the index, while 54,470 remains a crucial support zone. Traders should monitor these levels for potential trading opportunities," he said.

A move above 56,000 levels will lead to extension of up move towards the 56,800 zone in the coming weeks. The key support base is placed at 54,000-53,500 levels, being the Monday’s gap area and the recent major breakout area, said Baja Broking Research.