Swiggy shares vision FY31: Why analysts have doubts; Citi, UBS, CLSA targets

Stock analysts who attended Swiggy's first-ever first Capital Markets Day largely left their targets unchanged on the online food delivery firm, even as the management outlined its FY31 vision of building a Rs 2.5 lakh crore gross order value (GOV) platform. Swiggy is targeting an Ebitda of Rs 10,000 crore by FY31, implying a 30 per cent GOV growth compounded annually over FY26-31. Across verticals, the company expects food delivery GOV to scale 2.5-3.5 times from the prevailing levels, while quick commerce (QC) and Dineout are targeted to grow 4-5 times.

Swiggy expects profitability to outpace growth, with food delivery projected to contribute about Rs 5,000 crore to Ebitda, quick commerce Rs 4,000 crore and other segments Rs 1,000 crore. The ambitious guidance is likely to offer little comfort to the market, given the company’s recent execution history and the fact that the new Instamart CEO is yet to settle down, said JM Financial.

"In fact, the largest part of the earnings bridge depends on Instamart moving from an adjusted Ebitda loss of Rs 3,500 crore in FY26 to a profit of Rs 4,000 crore by FY31— that implies an Ebitda swing of Rs 7,500 crore over five years. "Consequently, we maintain our forecasts and rating, with an unchanged Jun’27 SoTP-based target of Rs 250," JM said.

Swiggy did not disclose its Ebida break-even timeline, said Elara Securities. The brokerage said it still sees Swiggy's profitability only post-FY29. Instamart's edge, Elara said, is hinged on differentiated assortment, private labels and exclusive partnerships, though executing on the profitability roadmap is the key challenge.

"We retain Accumulate with target at Rs 350, valuing quick commerce at 60 per cent discount to the market leader and food delivery at 38x EV/EBITDA (post ESOP charges)," it said.

MOFSL said the broader takeaway is that Swiggy continued to innovate, but the next leg of stock performance is likely to depend on execution rather than product launches.

"Whether it is Toing, Switch, Noise, or Nectr, the innovation pipeline remains active. However, delivering the Rs 10,000 crore profitability aspiration will require sustained improvement in Instamart MTU additions, ordering frequency, advertising monetization, and dark-store productivity over the next few quarters. We continue to value Swiggy on an SOTP basis and reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of Rs 350," MOFSL said.

Jefferies gave 'Buy' recommendation on Swiggy with a target of Rs 435. Citi suggested 'Buy' with a target of Rs 390. UBS target stands at Rs 355. CLSA, with a Hold call, finds the stock worthy of Rs 312.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said AI remains central to Swiggy's strategy, aiding customer discovery, merchant tools and advertising monetisation. The management expects advertising intensity to increase from 4 per cent to 7–8 per cent of gross merchandise value (GMV) over time through AI-led personalisation and deeper brand partnerships.