Tata Power vs Adani Power shares: Consensus targets suggest flat return for one, 10% upside for other; any guesses?

Adani Power Ltd has largely outperformed Tata Power Company Ltd in 2026, soaring 50 per cent year-to-date compared with a modest 4 per cent rise for the Tata group firm. But if one goes Bloomberg consensus targets, based on recent analyst projections, Tata Power could deliver 10 per cent upside over the next 12 months, while upside seems capped on Adani Power after the strong rally, consensus targets suggest. 

Based on estimates by 21 of 24 analysts that Bloomberg tracks, Tata Power has a consensus target of Rs 439.19 apiece, hinting at 10.3 per cent potential upside. This month alone, while Jefferies' Lavina Quadros suggested an 'Underperform' on the stock with a target of Rs 355, Citi's Mohit Pandey and JM Financial's Sudhanshu Bansal suggested 'Buy' with targets of Rs 525 and Rs 485, respectively. Bernstein's Nikhil Nigania suggested 'Outperform' with a target of Rs 443 while Tata Power is 'Equal weight' for Morgan Stanley's Girish Acchipalia that has a target of Rs 399 on the stock.    

Overall, there are 12 'Buy', seven 'Hold' and five sell calls on the Tata group stock. In the case of Adani Power, the Adani group stock has seven 'Buy' recommendations and one 'Sell' call. 

Its 12-month consensus target based on seven analysts stood at  Rs 223.29, hinting at nil upside potential. Jefferies' Quadros has 'Buy' on the stock with a target of Rs 270. JM's Bansal has 'Reduce' with a target of Rs 202. Bernstein has 'Outperform rating with a target of Rs 177. Manish A Somaiya of Cantor Fitzgerald is 'Overweight' with a target of R 266, as per Bloomberg data.   

JM Financial prefers Tata Power. "We expect an upward revision in targets for thermal additions and strong focus on storage. Within our coverage universe, our tactical pecking order is Tata Power, Emmvee, BHEL, Adani Green, Adani Power driven by expectations of a second surge in power demand, fuelled by the seasonally hottest month of June and the ensuing El Niño conditions from Jul through Sep’26."

Jefferies suggested 'Underperform' on Tata Power Company Ltd and 'Buy' on Adani Power Ltd. It raised target prices on the two stocks, but said JSW Energy, Adani Energy and NTPC, which have a pipeline of projects to execute, are its top picks.