Waaree Energies, Adani Green, IndiGo:  Q1 results preview, target prices

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo), Adani Green Energy Ltd and Waaree Energies Ltd are likely to report a mixed June quarter, according to Emkay Global, with pressure on IndiGo from higher fuel costs, strong growth expected at Adani Green, and range-bound earnings seen for Waaree Energies Ltd.

Emkay Global said the aviation sector was hit hard in June quarter due to the Middle East conflict, which led to higher fuel prices and disruptions in international sectors. It said IndiGo is still expected to report positive earnings, as forex losses appear unlikely with the rupee closing slightly stronger between the two quarter ends.

In the renewable energy space, Emkay Global said Adani Green is likely to record strong volume growth and earnings on the back of capacity growth and a seasonally supportive quarter. Waaree Energies, it said, should report range-bound earnings with stable margins.

For Waaree Energies, Emkay has set a target price of Rs 4,260, hinting at 48 per cent upside. Its Rs 5,200 target on IndiGo and Rs 1,500 target on Adani Green suggest 3-4 per cent potential downside.

For InterGlobe Aviation, Emkay Global estimated that IndiGo's yields would rise 14 per cent year-on-year YoY) to Rs 5.70, supported by fuel surcharges and higher airfares amid the Middle East conflict. However, the sharp increase in crude oil prices and jet fuel cracks is expected to push up fuel cost per ASK by 45 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). 

Emkay said ASK growth for IndiGo is likely to moderate to 4 per cent YoY, and remain flat QoQ, due to airspace restrictions. PLFs are expected to improve 40 basis points YoY to about 85 per cent, resulting in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) of 4 per cent YoY. PBT per ASK, excluding forex, is expected to decline 56 per cent YoY, while net profit is seen at Rs 1,150 crore against Rs 2,160 crore a year ago, mainly because of elevated fuel costs.

For Adani Green Energy, the brokerage said power sales would increase 25 per cent YoY and 31 per cent QoQ in Q1, supported by capacity expansion to 20.1 GW from 19.3 GW between the two quarter ends, along with sequential improvement in CUFs. 

It said merchant tariff rates have improved, with overall book realisation expected to rise 3 per cent QoQ to Rs 3.2 per kWh. Consolidated Ebitda is estimated to rise 32 per cent YoY and 39 per cent QoQ to Rs 4,010 crore, while adjusted PAT is expected to rise 46 per cent YoY to Rs 1,060 crore.

For Waaree Energies, Emkay Global estimated consolidated revenue to fall 7 per cent QoQ to Rs 7,860 crore in Q1 due to lower module production, a marginal decline in module realisations and a lower EPC run rate. 

Revenue on a YoY basis is likely to rise 78 per cent, Emkay said. 

"Ebitda margin is expected to remain stable QoQ at around 19 per cent, supported by higher cell utilisation and production. Consolidated Ebitda and adjusted PAT are estimated to fall 3 per cent and 10 per cent QoQ to Rs 1530 crore and Rs 950 crore respectively in 1QFY27," it said.