Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, SAIL: Antique picks Tata stock; here's why

Antique Stock Broking in its latest note on metals & mining sector said it prefers steel companies with strong market presence, greater raw material integration, low leverage, and higher exposure to the domestic market. The domestic brokerage prefers Tata Steel among listed steel stocks, noting that it has 75 per cent flat products in its portfolio and that the company is ramping up its 5 mtpa Kalinganagar blast furnace and 2.2 mtpa cold rolling mill complex, which would aid volume growth and improve product mix. 

Antique said Tata Steel has undertaken several cost optimization initiatives that would aid in Ebitda growth, which would be partially offset by higher coking coal costs. 

"Furthermore, CBAM implementation (along with potentially stricter import quotas) should support European domestic steel prices (curb imports) and aid Tata Steel’s European operations. Our preferred pick in the sector is Tata Steel (target of Rs 235," Antique said. 

The domestic brokerage also has 'Buy' on Jindal Steel with an unchanged target of Rs 1,318. It assigned 'Hold' on JSW Steel Ltd and Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) with targets of Rs 1,151 and Rs 167, respectively. 

Antique said domestic steel demand remained strong with the World Steel Association’s short-range outlook projecting India’s demand to rise 7.4 per cent YoY in 2026 and 9.2 per cent YoY in 2027.

It said steel demand grew 7.6 per cent YoY to 163.7 mt during FY26 and 8.1 per cent YoY to 13 mt in April, as per provisional Joint Plant Committee (JPC) data. Increase in Chinese steel prices due to rise in coking coal costs and safeguard duty by the Indian government has aided domestic steel prices, it said.

"Production rationalization in China and resilient domestic demand should aid Indian steel players. Though firm coking coal and iron ore costs could subdue sequential margin expansion. Furthermore, new capacities of domestic players ramping up and/or coming online in the short term (approx. 15 mtpa of new crude steel capacity expected by FY28) could limit the upside potential for steel prices domestically," it said.