Varun Beverages shares: Investors face a rough ride as analysts flag weak technicals  

Varun Beverages shares are turning weak as competition and cost pressures rise for the Pepsico bottler. The firm faced an intense price war as Reliance was selling Campa Cola 200-milliliter (6.7-fluid ounce) bottles for  Rs 10 rupees. This was about half the price what market leaders Coca-Cola and Pepsi charged consumers for similar-sized bottles. Later, Coca-Cola and Pepsi also responded by price cuts in response to disruptive pricing by Reliance Retail. 

Reliance’s retail unit bought Campa Cola for Rs 220 million ($2.6 million) in 2022. 

In May this year, the Mumbai-based conglomerate said the fizzy drink clocked a double-digit market share in key regions in the year ended March 31 — barely two years after it was relaunched in India. 

The price war effect seems to have percolated into the Varun Beverages stock with the market leader facing a likely erosion in margins. 

Varun Beverages stock is down 30% this year and fallen 16% in three months. The multibagger stock has delivered negative returns for period up to a year , slipping up to 30%. 

In the current session, Varun Beverages stock was trading on a flat note at Rs 455.45 on BSE. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 1.53 lakh crore. A total of 0.70 lakh shares of the firm changed hands, amounting to a turnover of Rs 3.18 crore. Later, the Varun Beverages stock closed  0.52% lower at Rs 450.60. 

Varun Beverages shares are trading lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.

Ravi Singh, SVP - Retail Research, Religare Broking advises to maintain a strict stop loss of Rs 405 on the FMCG stock. 

"VBL has continued to trade in downtrend since January 2025, with falling more 30% from strong resistance zone of  Rs 670- Rs 680. Since May 2025, the stock has consistently traded below its key moving averages of 20-day and 50-day EMAs, reflecting sustained selling pressure and a prevailing bearish trend. The weekly RSI is traded near 35, below the oversold threshold, indicating significant weakness, while this may also signal the potential for a short-term rebound." 

"Traders are advised that if stock shows resilience nears 430-435 level then a long position can be initiated with the recovery towards Rs 470-480 levels, which is aligned with its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The overall sentiment remains negative, as increased trading volumes during recent declines reinforce the downward trend. A decisive break below Rs 405 may accelerate the correction, potentially driving the stock prices down towards  Rs 360–330 range. It is recommended to maintain a strict stop loss below Rs 405 to manage downside risk," added Singh. 

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said, "Varun Beverages is approaching a crucial inflection point as it consolidates just above the Rs 448– Rs 465 support zone, hinting at a potential base formation following a prolonged downtrend. A double-bottom pattern appears to be emerging on the daily chart. The stock has consistently respected this demand zone, and the recent uptick in delivery volumes suggests quiet accumulation by long-term participants."

"Although the stock has remained below 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which reflect continued pressure on the broader trend. The daily RSI remains near the 35 mark, indicating the stock is in the oversold zone and may witness a corrective rebound, while the flattening MACD histogram suggests a potential shift in trend. On the broader front, the Nifty FMCG index, currently at 54,550, is also showing signs of base formation. If this base holds, it could pave the way for a gradual sector-wide reversal. However, a breakdown below Rs 430 would invalidate the base-building attempt and open the doors to further downside. Until then, staggered accumulation near current levels may be favorable from a medium-term perspective," added Mehra. 

The Pepsico bottler clocked a 33.45% rise in net profit for the March 2025 quarter. Net profit rose to Rs 731.30 crore in Q1 against Rs 131.9 crore in the March 2024 quarter. Revenue from operations in Q1 rose 29% to Rs 5680 crore against Rs 4397.98 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal EBITDA rose 27.8% in Q1 to Rs 1263.96 crore from Rs 988.76 crore in the Q1 of previous fiscal. The board also cleared a interim dividend of Rs 0.50 per share.  

Varun Beverages is a beverage company. It operates franchisee of PepsiCo. The company produces and distributes a range of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), as well as a large selection of non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), including packaged drinking water sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.