Why Oberoi Realty stock is falling today, share price targets & more

Shares of Oberoi Realty fell 4 per cent in Wednesday's trade as June quarter profit fell 30 per cent short of analyst estimates. Lower-than-estimated collections hit June quarter revenue despite stable presales, analysts said.  

Nomura India said it cut its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 7 per cent and 4 per cent, as it fine-tuned revenue recognition expectations from the company’s projects. 

"We, however, reaffirm Buy as: 1) we expect pre-sales to record an 30 per cent CAGR over FY26-FY27 on the robust pipeline of new projects (four minimum) and tower launches in existing projects; 2) we expect cumulative annuity and hotel income CAGR of 25 per cent over FY26-FY27, and; 3) Oberoi Realty's robust cash generation and strong balance sheet should aid in new business development (BD) in FY26F," it said.

The brokerage sees a cumulative pre-sales of Rs 16,100 crore for Oberoi Realty over the next two years, which is 40 per cent of the company’s total supply -- roughly at par with Macrotech. 

MOFSL said Oberoi Realty's prevailing valuation does not suggest significant near-term gains. That said, the brokerage sees a strong 48 per cent CAGR in presales over FY25-27. The key to a future rerating lies in the company's ability to reinvest the substantial cash flow derived from its completed and near-completion projects, it said while suggesting a target price of Rs 1,878 on the stock. 

On Wednesday, the stock fell 4.08 per cent to hit a low of Rs 1,751 on BSE.

Elara Securities finds Oberoi Realty as a low risk compounder, given its prudent underwriting through cycles, deep micro market presence and convergence to a multi-regional play with its entry into Gurugram. 

"The stock is trading attractively - near March 2026 NAV, while EV/core FCFF for the development business at 10x/8x on FY26E/FY27E, respectively," it said.

The pace of launches shall determine the stock’s trajectory, Nuvama said. This brokerage maintained ‘Hold’ with a revised target of Rs 1,800 (earlier Rs 1,793) based on a 35 per cent premium to NAV along with a rollover to Q1FY28E.

Nomura said the stock trades at a 53 per cent premium to NAV (vs peers at a 36-140 per cent premium to NAV) and its own estimate of an 75 per cent premium to NAV. It suggested a target of Rs 2,000 on the stock.