Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 26 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity markets are set to open on a muted note on Tuesday amid the cautious undertone over persistent geopolitical tensions which has kept the crude oil prices elevated and pressure on the Indian rupee. However, the recent tone from Washington has eased the tensions marginally and positive earnings by India Inc also support the sentiments.

Markets are likely to remain event-driven in the near term, with volatility expected to persist amid elevated crude oil prices, continued weakening rupee, rising bond yields and mounting inflationary concerns are collectively creating a challenging backdrop for domestic equities, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 26 points, or 0.11 per cent, up at 23,684, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian shares wobbled on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump's decision to pause a planned attack on Iran. KOSPI dropped more than 3.5 per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Senge were positive.

US stocks ended mostly lower on Monday as investors took some profits while surging Treasury yields and high oil prices ​fueled inflation concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 159.95 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 49,686.12, the S&P 500 lost 5.45 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 7,403.05 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 134.41 points, ​or 0.51 per cent, to 26,090.73.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
In foreign exchange, the dollar has benefited from safe-haven demand ​since the onset of the war as the dollar index held steady at 99.026. Brent crude futures fell more than 2 per cent to $109.41 a barrel on the back of Trump's comments, while US ​crude was down 1.3 per cent to $107.25 per barrel. Spot gold eased marginally to $4,562.50 an ounce, having come under pressure lately.

The weakness was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran intensified concerns over global energy supplies, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to recommend a stock-specific approach. Traders may focus on sectors like pharma, healthcare, energy, and metals for long positions."
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,813.69 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,682.12 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50, VIX & Sensex outlook
Technically, after a gap-down open, the market took support near 23,300/74,200 and bounced back sharply. From the day's lowest point, the market rallied over 350/1,200 points. The intraday market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

A decisive move above 23,650 could trigger a short-term rally towards 24,000 and higher levels. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 23,400. Stock-specific buying interest continues to remain visible, indicating selective strength in the broader market, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

"For day traders, 23,500/75,000 would act as a trend-decider level. As long as the market is trading above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, the pullback move could continue till 23,800–23,900/75,500-75,800. On the flip side, below 23,500/75,000, it could retest the levels of 23,300–23,250/74,200-74,000," he added.

Sensex managed to recover sharply from lower levels after testing the crucial support zone near 74,000–74,250, indicating that buying interest still persists at lower levels, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "However, the index continues to face resistance around 75,700–76,000, where supply pressure is visible on every rise," he added.

India VIX settled at 19.50, which remains a key concern for the bulls. A sustained decline below the 18 mark would be crucial for bullish momentum to regain strength. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broader range of 23,300–23,800 levels in the near term, said Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle with a lower high and lower low and shadows in either direction signaling consolidation with high volatility. It is holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 will lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700 levels in the coming sessions, said Bajaj Broking.

"However, the index needs to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Failure to do so will lead to consolidation in the range of 52,700-54,000. Key support is placed at 52,700-52,400 levels," it added.

The immediate support for Nifty Bank is placed in the 53,100-53,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its weakness towards 52,700, followed by 52,400 in the short term, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Index is placed in the 53,900-54,000 zone."