Stock market today: Gift Nifty 180 points; key levels to watch for Nifty & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open higher on Monday, after the US Supreme Court struck down levies imposed by President Donald Trump, prompting him to raise a temporary tariff on US imports to 15 per cent from 10 per cent. The US Supreme Court on Friday struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were up 180.30 points, or 0.70 per cent, up at 25,765, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Majority of Asian markets rose more than a per cent, while Japanese markets remained shut.

Indian markets may witness a positive start following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down former President Trump’s global tariff order, stating that the President does not have unilateral authority to impose sweeping global tariffs without Congressional approval. For India, the effective tariff burden is expected to ease to 10 per cent, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Wall Street stocks ended higher on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's global tariffs. The S&P 500 climbed 0.69 per cent to end the session at 6,909.51 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.90 per cent to 22,886.07 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47 per cent to 49,625.97 points.

Gold gained and oil prices eased ahead of another round of talks between the United States and Iran due in Geneva on Thursday, with the risk of US military strikes lingering if a deal is not done. In commodity markets, gold gained a safe-haven bid and firmed 10 per cent to $5,156 an ounce. Silver gained 3.2 per cent to $87.25 per ounce.

Oil prices were choppy, unwinding some of the gains made last week when Trump said the US military could strike specific targets in Iran if a nuclear deal was not agreed on. Brent fell 1.1 per cent to $70.94 a barrel, while US crude lost 1.2 per cent to $65.71 per barrel.

"Sectors such as IT, pharma, metals, textiles and energy stand to benefit from the reduction in tariff uncertainty. The introduction of a uniform 10 per cent rate across countries removes the relative disadvantage arising from differential trade arrangements with the US. Going ahead, key market triggers will include the trajectory of inflation and movements in the US dollar index," he said.

Given elevated volatility and mixed cues, investors should maintain a selective and risk-calibrated approach. Preference should remain for large-cap financials, energy, auto, and select metal counters, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We maintain a cautious near-term view on IT, citing prevailing headwinds, and recommend keeping exposure limited until clarity emerges."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 934.61 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,637.15 crore on a net-net basis. FIIs have turned net buyers in February, buying shares worth Rs 16,912 in the domestic markets so far.

The trend of FPI buying is likely to continue. A major factor driving the inflows could be the improvement in corporate earnings, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. "As per the early estimates, FY27 earnings growth is likely to be around 15 per cent. This will make Indian valuations fair and attractive for FPIs to turn buyers in India."
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Nifty50 has closed below its 21 day and 55 day EMA on the daily charts, reflecting weak short term momentum. Price is facing sharp resistance in the 25850–25900 zone which is expected to act as a strong hurdle in the coming week, said Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.

"A sustained move above 25,900 could trigger a rally toward 26,100. On the downside key support is placed near 25,400 and a breakdown below this level may drag the index toward 25,100 which marks a gap area. Strategy remains range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs," he said.

Nifty50 remains in a consolidation phase, trading within a well-defined range. Immediate support is positioned at 25,500–25,400, marking a key demand and pivot zone. On the upside, resistance is observed at 25,650–25,750, while a sustained breakout above 25,800 could open the path toward the psychological 26,000 mark, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

"Momentum indicators show gradual stabilization, suggesting improving but not aggressive momentum. The near-term structure reflects a mild positive bias; however, range-bound movement between 25,450–25,800 is likely. A strategy of selective accumulation on dips near support levels may remain prudent until clearer global direction unfolds," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candlestick that recovered nearly half of the previous session’s losses, indicating active buying at key levels, though some profit booking was visible at higher zones, Bajaj Broking said.

"It is likely to trade within a broad range of 60,000–61,750, as long as it sustains above its key short-term averages. A decisive move beyond this range could trigger fresh directional momentum. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 61,400 followed by 61,750, while supports are seen at 60,800 and 60,500," he said.

Nifty Bank displayed strong price action by convincingly surpassing the crucial resistance level at 60,500 and forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart, which signals a potential trend reversal and strengthening bullish sentiment. It continues to trade below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs, indicating persistent overhead supply, said Choice Broking.

"On the upside, 61,500 remains the immediate resistance hurdle, followed by 61,700 and 61,800 as subsequent supply zones. Traders are advised to stay constructive but disciplined, with 60,300 as a critical support level and 61,500 as the key resistance zone to gauge the next directional move," it added.