Stock market impact: What investors should know after US SC verdict on Trump tariffs

While Gift Nifty surged over 1 per cent following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Friday, the index was trading half a per cent lower earlier today after Trump moved to raise a fresh 10 per cent worldwide levy to 15 per cent with immediate effect. Analysts noted that headline global tariff of 15 per cent is announced under Section 122, while tariffs under other measures such as section 232 and section 201 are unaffected.

"This implies that the US has lost immediate tariff leverage as a means to agree to favorable trade deals globally, but the focus will shift to sectoral tariffs and alternatives," Emkay Global said.

The brokerage said the fallout should be narrower and less damaging than in 2025, adding that most nations are likely to renegotiate their US trade deals, with growing political considerations also likely to restrain Trump going ahead.

"This is a positive development for India, in our view. With effective tariff rates at 11-13 per cent and no threat of Russian oil-linked higher tariffs, we expect a more favorable negotiation with the US," Emkay said.

Elara Securities said while the SCOTUS ruling removes a critical event for the markets, it remains skeptical about the next steps the administration may take. The intertemporal lag until the next move by the administration, is likely to raise uncertainty among US importers, it said.

"Concerns persist over how tariff pause on China will be handled in the current scenario. This will be a key monitorable when the POTUS visits China in late March 2025. While there are provisions to raise tariffs on China, given the geopolitical sensitivity and Trump’s favorable rhetorics for China, we see less chances of China facing higher US tariffs," Elara said.

This brokerage said the randomness of the tariff announcements leaves some questions unanswered, notably, what will happen to the negotiated trade deals, and the related subsections.

"Another key issue is refunds. If refunds are delayed or face procedural hurdles, the political fallout could be significant, potentially increasing the risk of Republicans losing control of both houses of Congress," it said.