'Business disruption in Egypt will be short term'

A beautiful thing is never perfect" goes an Egyptian proverb. Not even the protestors could have predicted the effect of the recent Egyptian uprising on businesses in the region and the world.

The marches, which began on 25 January, shut down business in the country for more than 10 days.  Many companies use Egypt as a manufacturing hub for the region, and the protests impacted their supply chain. Foreign direct investment went on hold and the risk of currency depreciation loomed.

But these are likely to be short-term phenomena.

To me, the key question is not whether Egypt is stable, but whether the rest of the world is, and whether the slight tremors in Egypt will be amplified into larger shock waves that would rock the rest of the world economy.

What happens if crude goes beyond $110? What happens if there is a violent uprising or ethnic strife in other countries in the Middle East?

For Egypt, a long-term solution is inevitable. With global political entities having a key stake in peace and stability in the region, a peaceful solution looks highly likely. Even though small vested interests have tried to incite violence, key stakeholders seem to be maintaining restraint and a commitment to ending the impasse peacefully.

Already, there are signs that things seem to be on the recovery path in Egypt, with most firms' partially restarting operations and the government announcing a 15 per cent increase in all public sector salaries. One expects more measures to reassure people of the positive intent while momentum for change builds in the political establishment.

Beyond a point, the Egyptian people will not be flustered by the flux, they have witnessed more change over centuries than perhaps any other civilization.  Like Indians they have seen foreign conquerors come and go.  Patience, resilience and optimism are in their DNA.

In the final reckoning, the spirit of the Egyptian people will determine how this situation develops. That they appear to be keen to do things in a non-violent manner is the most heartening thing. Non-violence has been the secret to all sustainable revolutions, be it in India or South Africa.

Vijay Subramaniam is the CEO of the International Business Group at consumer products giant Marico.  The group manufactures and distributes lifestyle brands across the world, including Egypt.  Ameya Naniwadekar, head of marketing & strategy at Marico's international business, contributed to the article.