Gold hits record Rs 1.28 lakh: Religare sees more upside for gold despite overbought signals

Gold’s remarkable rally through 2025 has reaffirmed its status as a safe-haven asset amid global economic and geopolitical turbulence.Gold prices in India hit a record Rs 128,395 per 10 grams on Thursday, marking a 67% surge since January. According to Religare Broking’s Diwali 2025 Gold Special Report, the yellow metal has witnessed a parabolic surge since August, soaring from Rs 98,500 per 10 grams to a record Rs 1,26,930 per 10 grams by October — its highest level ever. This exceptional climb has been driven by a perfect storm of factors: geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, steady central bank buying, and expectations of dovish monetary policy across major economies.

However, such rapid gains have also pushed gold into overbought territory, prompting analysts at Religare Broking to advise investors to exercise caution and adopt a staggered entry strategy. The firm recommends accumulating gold on corrective dips rather than chasing prices at current highs. The ideal buying range, they suggest, lies between Rs 1,14,000 and Rs 1,18,000 per 10 grams, which could serve as a healthy retracement zone within the broader uptrend. From this range, analysts project potential upside targets in the region of Rs 1,35,000–Rs 1,42,000 per 10 grams over the short to medium term.

Religare’s technical outlook indicates that the overall trend remains robust, with gold prices firmly holding above key short-term moving averages — the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). This consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows reflects sustained investor confidence. Yet, the brokerage warns that the pace of the rally has been exceptionally steep, heightening the likelihood of near-term profit booking or sideways consolidation.

On the downside, a sustained move below Rs 1,05,000 per 10 grams could signal a weakening of the current uptrend and trigger a deeper corrective phase. In such a scenario, traders are advised to review stop-loss levels and reassess exposure.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, Religare highlights several key supports for gold’s continued strength. Global central banks, including those of China and India, remain net buyers, collectively purchasing over 1,000 tonnes for a third consecutive year. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and slowing global growth have reinforced gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.

The brokerage also points to renewed investor interest through gold-backed ETFs, which have seen inflows of $64 billion globally in 2025, including record inflows of $10 billion in India in September alone.

Religare concluded that while short-term volatility is likely, gold’s long-term trajectory remains positive. For investors seeking portfolio diversification and inflation protection, the current market environment presents opportunities — provided they follow a disciplined, staggered accumulation strategy and maintain a balanced risk-reward outlook.

Gold outlook

Gold’s breach of the $4,000 per ounce mark in 2025 signals one of the strongest rallies in decades, driven by resilient demand and global uncertainty. Motilal Oswal projects further upside toward $4,500 on COMEX and Rs 1.35 lakh per 10 grams domestically. Central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and festive buying continue to bolster sentiment, while supply constraints and rising production costs tighten the market. Silver’s surge, supported by industrial demand from solar, EVs, and AI, reflects a broader precious metals rally. With the dollar weakening and potential U.S. rate cuts ahead, analysts expect gold’s upward momentum to persist through 2025 and beyond.

Gold investment

According to Axis Direct, Indian households collectively hold over $3 trillion worth of gold—the largest private reserves in the world. In 2025, gold has delivered nearly 60% returns, far outperforming the Nifty50 index. Factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. rate cuts continue to drive demand. With expectations of further monetary easing and strong ETF inflows, analysts project sustained bullish momentum, recommending investors accumulate gold on dips for long-term gains and portfolio stability. Additionally, the ongoing trend of de-dollarisation and rising inflation concerns have reinforced gold’s role as a global safe-haven asset, ensuring its continued relevance in uncertain economic times.