Gold price: Will yellow metal extend dream run in 2026, here's what Axis Securities says

Gold is set to conclude 2025 with robust momentum, having experienced one of its most notable rallies in decades.The metal has rallied 60% this year so far. Axis Securities says that gold will enter 2026 with favourable momentum but may face a more complex macro landscape.

In terms of further upside, Axis Securities highlights several tailwinds that could extend the rally into 2026. These are potential additional US rate cuts, ongoing central-bank buying, heavy ETF inflows, geopolitical risks, and the persistence of de-dollarisation by emerging markets and commodity exporters.

Continued uncertainty, accommodative monetary policy and structural central-bank demand could help the metal scale new highs, according to the brokerage. However, a reversal in yields, geopolitical calm or stronger risk-asset performance may cool the rally after an extraordinary year.

The report notes that US President Donald Trump’s tariff moves and repeated calls for faster US Federal Reserve rate cuts created persistent uncertainty, prompting investors to shift toward bullion. Additionally, the Fed has already delivered two rate cuts this year, in September and October, and a third is expected in December — a sequence that has kept real yields subdued.

Central banks have also played a critical part in the rally, as central-bank buying remained a major driver. According to the report, sovereign purchases surpassed 1,180 tonnes last year and are projected to approach 1,000 tonnes in 2025, with ETF inflows adding further support. The ongoing de-dollarisation among emerging markets has encouraged central banks to diversify reserves into gold, contributing to strong structural demand.

Technical indicators point to a continuing uptrend into the new year. The report notes that MCX gold broke decisively above ₹1.01 lakh–₹1.06 lakh per 10 grams this year and recently touched around ₹1.32 lakh per 10 grams, maintaining a strong structural uptrend as long as it holds above ₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams. Despite the positive setup, the report outlines several headwinds that could pressure bullion in 2026. These include a shift back to hawkish monetary policy, a recovery in the US dollar, softening central-bank demand, easing geopolitical tensions, a risk-on surge in alternative assets, and subdued physical demand in key markets like India and China.