Gold prices rally toward record levels on Fed cut expectations and domestic buying

Gold prices continued their steady climb last week, supported by rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. Strong buying interest across India and global markets helped the metal extend its winning streak on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for the fourth straight month. On Friday, MCX gold futures for February 2026 closed ₹1,932, or 1.51%, higher at ₹1,29,599 per 10 grams—now only about ₹2,700 below its all-time high of ₹1,32,294 touched on 17 October 2025.

Commodity analysts attribute the current uptrend to the sharply rising probability—now at 87%—of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting. A softer US dollar and heightened political uncertainty under the Donald Trump administration are further fuelling safe-haven demand. Investors, wary of volatility in global equities and bonds, are shifting allocations toward gold, reinforcing its upward momentum.

In global markets, spot gold hovered just above $4,224 per ounce (24-carat) on November 29 as of 12:13 a.m. IST, up roughly 1.61% from the previous close. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a jump in expectations that the Fed will lower rates to the 350–375 bps range in December, rising from 71% a week ago to nearly 87% now.

A report by Augmont Bullion highlighted that gold has once again tested the $4,215–$4,240 resistance zone. A breakout above $4,240 could open the door to a move toward the previous record of $4,400 (₹1,31,500), while failure to breach the barrier may see prices retreat toward $4,100 (₹1,23,000). Traders are closely tracking upcoming US inflation data to gauge the sustainability of the current momentum.

Back in India, December gold futures on MCX settled at ₹1,26,960 per 10 grams on Friday, marking a 1.19% gain—its strongest performance so far in November—after hitting an intraday low of ₹1,25,759. IBJA pegged the price of 999-purity physical gold at ₹1,26,591 in the November 28 evening session.

Gold, silver prices in major Indian cities
New Delhi: Gold ₹1,27,130/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,130/kg
Mumbai: Gold ₹1,27,350/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,430/kg
Kolkata: Gold ₹1,27,180/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,200/kg
Chennai: Gold ₹1,27,720/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,930/kg
Bengaluru: Gold ₹1,27,450/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,570/kg
Hyderabad: Gold ₹1,27,550/10 gm; Silver ₹1,72,700/kg

Providing a technical outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said COMEX Gold has broken out of its symmetrical triangle slope resistance, signalling the start of a fresh bullish phase. “Immediate resistance lies at $4,286, and a sustained close above this can extend the rally toward $4,300–$4,400. As long as prices stay above $4,200, the structure remains bullish. A drop below $4,200, however, may trigger a corrective move toward $4,080,” he said, adding that volatility on the upside appears imminent.

On domestic exchanges, he noted that MCX Gold is nearing a crucial resistance around ₹1,27,800. “A decisive close above this level could push prices toward ₹1,29,000–₹1,30,500. Support is placed at ₹1,25,300, with strong buying expected between ₹1,25,000 and ₹1,24,400. The medium-term trend remains firmly positive.”

Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, said the recent firmness in gold stems from global economic uncertainty and sustained domestic demand. Wedding-season buying, strong retail interest, and a broader preference for safe-haven assets are keeping market sentiment moderately optimistic for further price gains in the weeks ahead.