Gold set for ‘higher-for-longer’ phase; $5,000/oz possible in 2026, says Kotak Securities

Gold prices in 2026: Gold prices may touch $5,000 an ounce in 2026, staying in a "higher-for-longer" phase driven by growing geopolitical tensions, expectations of more US monetary easing, and slowing global growth, Kotak Securities said in its latest 2026 outlook. 

Continued shifts away from fiat currencies, strong investor interest, and steady central bank buying—especially in emerging markets amid de-dollarisation—support the metal's outlook.

The brokerage noted that while some short-term pullback after 2025’s surge is expected, gold’s fundamentals remain solid going into 2026 and beyond.

"Together, these forces suggest that while short-term consolidation is natural after such a dramatic rally in 2025, the fundamental backdrop continues to favour gold heading into 2026 and beyond," Kotak said in its report. 

Gold on COMEX surpassed $4,000 per ounce, hitting record levels above $4,380 in October. The metal climbed over 55% since late 2024, marking 50 new highs in 2025. Domestically, prices hit a record Rs 132,000 per 10 grams in October, up more than 60% year-to-date, boosted by rupee depreciation. Kotak projects domestic gold could reach Rs 150,000 per 10 grams, with analyst Anindya Banerjee noting it might surpass that but they prefer a cautious estimate.

Domestic gold prices rose to a record Rs 132,000 per 10 gram levels in October, with an increase of more than 60% year-to-date, outpacing international gains due to depreciation in the Indian rupee, the report said. The brokerage sees domestic gold prices rising to INR 150,000 per 10 grams. "It might so happen that it can exceed that. But we want to be conservative," Anindya Banerjee, Kotak's commodity analyst, said.

On Wednesday, Gold prices slipped slightly, with 24K gold trading at Rs 130,050 per 10 grams, down Rs 20 from the previous close. The price of 22K gold also eased to Rs 119,213 per 10 grams. In India, gold rates are shaped by global spot prices, movements in the US dollar, and local import duties, among other factors.

Indian gold prices continue to stay higher than those in Dubai. On 10 December, 24K gold in India was priced at Rs 130,050 per 10 grams, while the same purity cost Rs 112,816 in Dubai — a gap of Rs 17,234, or 15.28%. Prices for 22K and 18K gold showed a similar premium in India, excluding fees, duties, and taxes.

Why are there sudden dip in gold prices?

Since the beginning of this month, gold prices have settled into an unusual calm after a stunning 51% surge this year, holding firm even as the US dollar has strengthened by nearly 5%. Instead of signalling weakness, this quiet phase, according to experts, feels more like the market catching its breath — a moment where traders and long-term investors are reassessing their positions.

A stronger dollar has naturally cooled some international demand, yet gold has stayed resilient. Seasonality is also playing its part: the period from late November to mid-January has historically supported prices, and this year is behaving much the same.

With Diwali rush behind us, demand has softened, but many traders are still positioning for potential upside. Technically, gold continues to find support at its 50-day moving average, reinforcing the view that the broader uptrend remains intact. Even as geopolitical tensions ease and risk appetite returns, gold’s refusal to slip suggests its appeal is far from fading.