Gold may be poised for a bigger breakout in 2026 as bull run extends: Report

Gold’s multi-year rally may still have a long runway ahead. Brokerage firm Ventura believes the precious metal could continue its upward climb in 2026, supported by persistent macroeconomic strains, heavy central bank accumulation, and expectations of aggressive US Federal Reserve rate cuts. The firm projects an ambitious price band of $4,600–$4,800, suggesting that gold’s decade-long bull market is “far from over.”

Gold prices were range-bound on December 4, trading between $4,175 and $4,217, with spot gold last seen at $4,213, up 0.2 percent despite firmer US yields. The metal gained 4.28 percent in the week ended November 28 and has now risen for four consecutive months—reinforcing sentiment that investors are once again turning to safe-haven assets.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, said gold edged higher while silver eased due to profit-booking after positive U.S. jobless claims data. He noted that weakening labour indicators have intensified expectations of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with market odds nearing 87 percent. Kalantri pegged gold’s support at $4,165–4,135 and resistance at $4,260–4,295, with detailed INR levels also indicating narrow but firm trading bands.

Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of IBJA, said domestic gold at ₹1,27,845 per 10 gm is showing a softer tone as traders temper expectations of early rate cuts. Buying may remain selective, she added, unless fresh macro data shifts sentiment decisively.

Macro tailwinds

Ventura highlights four powerful drivers that continue to propel gold:

Relentless central bank accumulation, making gold the second-largest reserve asset

Stubborn inflation

Widening US fiscal deficits and slowdown fears

Expectations of ~75 bps Fed rate cuts in 2026

Domestic prices remain elevated, with Indian gold nearly 15 percent costlier than Dubai, due to import duties and a weaker rupee—tightening local supply and encouraging cross-border flows.

Nine quarters, nine highs

Gold has posted new highs for nine straight quarters, reflecting rising geopolitical risks, weakening global currencies, high debt burdens, and investors’ desire to diversify away from fiat systems. Ventura says the rally is rooted in deteriorating confidence in global currency stability.

After hitting a record $4,398 on October 20, 2025, gold corrected 11 percent but quickly rebounded to $4,299 in December despite rising treasury yields—a sign that long-term demand remains intact. The current phase, the brokerage says, is consolidation rather than liquidation.

2026 Outlook

Ventura identifies the following key levels:

Support: $4,202, $4,190, $4,160, $4,114
Resistance: $4,255, $4,265, $4,300
Breakout potential: $4,381–$4,441

While short-term corrections are likely, Ventura maintains that the bull cycle remains intact due to central bank buying, elevated global debt, falling real yields, and persistent risk aversion—all conditions that could push gold even higher through 2026.