Is Dhanteras, Diwali the best time to buy gold and silver? Expert says the real golden month is this

Dhanteras 2025: Gold and silver prices are glittering this festive season — but does that mean it’s the best time to buy? With gold crossing Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams and silver hovering around Rs 1.9 lakh per kg, investors are torn between fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear of buying at the peak. Dhanteras, Diwali, and the upcoming wedding season typically trigger a surge in gold and silver purchases, driven by both religious sentiment and investment interest. The festive and matrimonial rush often fuels higher prices and tighter market discounts as consumer demand peaks. 

According to Alok Jani, Founder of Weekend Investing, festive enthusiasm often clouds data-backed investing logic. His extensive 45-year study reveals that while festivals coincide with high prices, they may not necessarily be the best entry points.

Festive season myth

“It’s a popular belief that the September–November period — the wedding and festive season — gives the best returns in gold and silver,” Jani explains. “We wanted to test that hypothesis with real data.”

Historically, Indian buyers rush to purchase gold and silver around Dhanteras and Diwali, driving short-term spikes in demand and prices. Many investors assume that buying gold in April and selling in December guarantees profits due to festive demand. To validate this, Weekend Investing analyzed 45 years of price data from 1981 to 2025, testing whether an April-to-December holding period consistently outperformed other timelines.

The findings surprised many:

If an investor had invested Rs 100 every April since 1981 and sold in December each year, that amount would have grown to Rs 3,500 in gold and just ₹615 in silver — a 35x return in gold but only 6x in silver over 45 years. “The April-to-December trade has worked occasionally, but not consistently enough to be considered a rule,” Jani says.

What the data says

When comparing all nine-month investment cycles across decades, gold performed best when bought in January and sold in September, while silver outperformed when bought in July and sold in March. Interestingly, buying gold around Diwali and selling the following June proved to be the worst-performing strategy.

For silver, July consistently stood out as the best entry month. “If you had invested Rs 100 only every July for the last 45 years, it would have turned into Rs 349 — even with exposure for just one month a year,” Jani notes. Conversely, June was the worst month for both metals, with average negative returns over the long term.

The data revealed that while both gold and silver tend to perform better in the second half of the year (July–December), the April-to-December trade that many Indians swear by doesn’t hold statistically superior outcomes.

Why the pattern exist

The outperformance in the latter half of the year aligns with global and domestic economic cycles. Central banks typically make key monetary policy shifts around mid-year, influencing bullion prices. At the same time, the global jewelry and industrial demand for silver rises in the second half, leading to price momentum.

Moreover, Indian weddings and festivals create short bursts of demand that often result in short-lived price spikes — ideal for traders, not for long-term investors. “It’s a classic buy on rumor, sell on news pattern,” Jani adds. “People anticipate higher prices before Diwali and rush to buy. But by the time festivities begin, the rally often peaks out.”

Advice for investors

So, should you buy gold and silver this Diwali? Jani advises moderation and patience. “If you’re investing for long-term wealth creation or as a hedge against inflation, time in the market matters more than timing the market,” he says.

Short-term traders may find seasonal patterns useful, but for investors, consistent SIP-style buying across the year is safer than trying to guess seasonal peaks. “Gold and silver have cycles tied to global monetary policy and industrial trends — not just Indian festivals,” Jani concludes.

His 45-year dataset reinforces that the April-to-December trade is a myth. While the festive period remains culturally significant, statistically, the best windows to accumulate gold and silver are July to March for silver and January to September for gold — long before the sparkle of Diwali begins.