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Economic Survey 2020: India facing slowdown but part of it is because of global slowdown, says KV Subramanian

Economic Survey 2020: India's aspiration to become a $5 trillion economy depends critically on "strengthening the invisible hand of the market and supporting it with the hand of trust", shows the survey

twitter-logoBusinessToday.In | January 31, 2020 | Updated 14:20 IST
Economic Survey 2020: India facing slowdown but part of it is because of global slowdown, says KV Subramanian
Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V Subramanian

Economic Survey 2020: Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V Subramanian has released Economic Survey 2020 today, predicting India's GDP to be 6-6.5 per cent in the next financial year. The document was earlier tabled in Parliament as Budget Session 2020 kick-started with President Ram Nath Kovind's address to both the Houses. The Economic Survey, which is a detailed report card on the Centre's economic performance through the year and future projection on the country's growth, says India's aspiration to become a $5 trillion economy depends on "strengthening the invisible hand of the market and supporting it with the hand of trust".

FULL COVERAGE: Union Budget 2020

Follow all the latest updates on the Economic Survey 2020 on BusinessToday.In live blog

2.20 PM: Economic Survey 2019-20: India has jumped up 79 positions in World Bank's Doing Business rankings, improving from 142 in 2014 to 63 in 2019. It continues to trail in Ease of Starting Business (rank 136), Registering Property (rank 154) Enforcing Contracts (rank 163).

2.19 PM: Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian: "Firms that borrowed a lot during 2008-12 invested less during 2013-17"

2.17 PM: In 2019-20, Centre's fiscal deficit was budgeted at Rs. 7.04 lakh crore (3.3 per cent of GDP), as compared to Rs. 6.49 lakh crore (3.4 per cent of GDP) in 2018-19: Economic Survey.

2.16 PM: The Economic Survey 2019-20 is a synthesis of the old and the new, says the CEA.

2.15 PM: All groups of countries have slowed down, in a globalised economy, India too has felt the effect, says the CEA.

2.14 PM: There has been a boom and bust in the share of corporate loans in non-food credit, says the CEA.

2.07 PM: The theme of the Economic Survey 2020 has been chosen to "enable markets, promote 'pro-business' policies and strengthen 'trust' in the economy". "Ethical Wealth Creation Key to India Becoming a $ 5 Trillion Economy by 2025: Economic Survey 2019-20," it says.

1.45 PM: Economic Survey explains 'Thalinomics: The Economics of a plate of food in India'

  • An attempt to quantify what a common person pays for a Thali across India.
  • A shift in the dynamics of Thali prices since 2015-16.
  • Absolute prices of a vegetarian Thali have decreased significantly since 2015-16 across India and the four regions; though the price has increased during 2019-20.
  • Post 2015-16: Average household gained close to Rs. 11, 000 on average per year from the moderation in prices in the case of vegetarian Thali; and average household that consumes two non-vegetarian Thalis gained close to Rs. 12, 000 on average per year during the same period.
  • From 2006-07 to 2019-20: Affordability of vegetarian Thalis improved 29%; and affordability of non-vegetarian Thalis improved by 18 %.

1.37 PM: India's GDP growth is not overstated, says Economic Survey

  • GDP growth is a critical variable for decision-making by investors and policymakers. Therefore, the recent debate about accuracy of India's GDP estimation following the revised estimation methodology in 2011 is extremely significant.
  • As countries differ in several observed and unobserved ways, cross-country comparisons have to be undertaken by separating the effect of other confounding factors and isolating effect of methodology revision alone on GDP growth estimates.
  • Models that incorrectly over-estimate GDP growth by 2.7 % for India post-2011 also misestimate GDP growth over the same period for 51 out of 95 countries in the sample.
  • Several advanced economies such as UK, Germany and Singapore have their GDPs misestimated with incompletely specified econometric model.
  • Correctly specified models that account for all unobserved differences and differential trends in GDP growth across countries fail to find any misestimating of growth in India or other countries.
  • Concerns of a misestimated Indian GDP are unsubstantiated by the data and are thus unfounded.

1.32 PM: New firm creation in India increased dramatically since 2014, says the survey

  • 12.2 % cumulative annual growth rate of new firms in the formal sector during 2014-18, compared to 3.8 % during 2006-2014.
  • About 1.24 lakh new firms created in 2018, an increase of about 80 % from about 70,000 in 2014.

1.31 PM: India ranks third in number of new firms created, as per the World Bank, says the survey

1.30 PM: India could achieve the $5-trillion economy status by strengthening the invisible hand and by promoting pro-business policies to:

  • Provide equal opportunities for new entrants.
  • Enable fair competition and ease doing business.
  • Eliminate policies unnecessarily undermining markets through government intervention.
  • Enable trade for job creation.
  • Efficiently scale up the banking sector.

1.26 PM: Need for the hand of trust to complement the invisible hand, illustrated by financial sector performance during 2011-13: Economic Survey 2020 

1.25 PM: Exponential rise in India's GDP and GDP per capita post-liberalisation coincides with wealth generation: Economic Survey 2020 

1.22 PM: India's aspiration to become a $5 trillion economy depends critically on strengthening the invisible hand of the market and supporting it with the hand of trust.

1.18 PM: India's GDP growth moderated to 4.8 per cent in H1 of 2019-20, amidst a weak environment for global manufacturing, trade and demand, says the Economic Survey 2020.

1.15 PM: The Economic Survey 2020 says the GST buoyancy key to the Centre-state revenue position

1.13 pm: India's GDP growth for FY 21 seen at 6-6.5 per cent, says the Economic Survey 2020

12.01 PM: The metro facility in India has been expanded to 18 cities. So far, 670 km Metro lines have been commissioned and work is on to expand it to 930 km: President

11.53 AM: India's forex reserves at historic level $450 billion dollars, says President

11.45 AM: This year, 75 new medical colleges have been approved in the country. This will increase the total number to 16,000 MBBS medical and over 4,000 PG seats: President Kovind

11.43 AM: "Our country is indebted to our annadata farmers. Under Prime Minister Kisan Samman Nidhi, more than Rs 43,000 crore has been deposited in the bank account of over 8 crore farmer families," President Kovind.

11.37 AM: A person of any creed can now become a citizen of India. The government has made several provisions for granting citizenship to refugees of any region, especially in the North East: President Kovind.

11.33 AM: President: I condemn the atrocities on minorities in Pakistan, urging the world community to take cognizance and take necessary steps.

11.32 AM: President on CAA: In the atmosphere created after Partition, the Father of the Nation Mahatma Gandhi had said that "Hindus and Sikhs of Pakistan, who do not want to live there, can come to India." It is the duty of the Government of India to provide them a normal life.

11.30 AM: President Ramnath Kovind says the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A of the Constitution through two-thirds majority by both the Houses of Parliament is not only historic but it has also paved the way for equal development of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

11.27 AM: The Central and Assam Governments have recently signed a historic agreement with the Bodo Organizations to bring an end to the 5 decade-old Bodo dispute: President Kovind.

11.27 AM: President Ramnath Kovind: My government built the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor in record time, dedicated it to the nation on the occasion of 550th Prakash Parv of Guru Nanak Dev Ji.

11.26 AM: Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian on Economic Survey: "Our team has done a lot of hard work. The team has prepared the second economic survey in six months."

11.25 AM: Watch the President of India addressing the joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament ahead of Budget Session 2020.

11.20 AM: Even today there are about 15 crore houses in rural areas of the country, where there is no supply of water from pipes: President Kovind.

11.14 AM: The result of grassroots reforms undertaken by the government in the last five years is that India's international ranking has improved unprecedentedly in many areas: President Kovind.

11.11 AM: Economic Survey 2020: President Ramnath Kovind says the mature way in which countrymen behaved after Supreme Court's decision on Ramjanmabhoomi is also praiseworthy.

11.10 AM: President Ramnath Kovind: Our constitution expects from this Parliament and every member present in this House to fulfill the hopes and aspirations of the countrymen and make necessary laws for them, keeping national interest paramount.

11.06 AM: President Ramnath Kovind addresses a joint session of both the Houses.

10.45 AM: President Kovind on his way to Parliament.

10.36 AM: "We all should make sure that in this session, we lay a strong foundation for this decade," said PM Modi.

10.11 AM: Chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian to hold a press conference on India's Economic Survey 2020 at 1.30 PM today.

10.08 AM: India's Economic Survey 2020 could project the country's growth to be around 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent in the next year starting April 1, Reuters said citing sources.

ALSO READ: Budget 2020: The big ideas of Economic Survey

10.02 AM: Opposition leaders including Congress Interim President Sonia Gandhi protest in front of the statue of Mahatma Gandhi in Parliament.

9.29 AM: Budget session of Parliament to commence today. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to table the Economic Survey 2019-20.

9.27 AM: Copies of the Economic Survey 2020 have been brought to Parliament.

9.24 AM: Press Conference by Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian on the Economic Survey 2020 to start after 11 am.

ALSO READ:Budget 2020: Date, timings, where to watch, expectations from Modi govt's most challenging Budget

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