Is India-US trade deal on the anvil? Here's what the Economic Survey 2025-26 says

Trade deal negotiations between India and the US are expected to conclude during the year, the Economic Survey 2025-26 said. It further said that the India-US bilateral trade agreement could help reduce uncertainty on the external front. 

The India-US trade deal is currently stuck in a limbo after US President Donald Trump levied 50 per cent tariffs, including a 25 per cent penalty for Russian oil purchases, on India. 

"At the same time, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are expected to conclude during the year, which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front. While these risks remain manageable, they reinforce the importance of maintaining adequate buffers and policy credibility," the Survey read. 

But has the India-US impasse impacted the domestic economy? No. As per the document tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the domestic economy continues to remain stable, and inflation has moderated to historically low levels, although some firming is expected to occur going forward. 

"Balance sheets across households, firms and banks are healthier, and public investment continues to support activity. Consumption demand remains resilient, and private investment intentions are improving. These conditions provide resilience against external shocks and support the continuation of growth momentum." 

At present, India is subject to tariffs of upto 50 per cent on goods exported to the US, among the highest on any country. Due to tariffs, there has been a year-on-year (YOY) decline in exports to the US during April-November 2025 in some labour-intensive and small-scale sectors. 

In contrast, India's exports to the world have gone up during the same period. 

For gems and jewellery, India turned to the UAE and Hong Kong after the tariff thunderclap from the US. The share of the UAE and Hong Kong in India's total exports went up from 41.4 per cent to 53.6 per cent. 

Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26 in the Parliament on Thursday. The survey is an annual report card of the country's economic performance in the financial year. 

It is tabled ahead of the Union Budget and presents a context for the policy actions to be taken in the coming financial year.