‘Instability poses several threats’: Shashi Tharoor says India must strike right balance with Nepal

People in India must be careful of conspiracy theories, said Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, referring to the ‘toolkit’ theory doing the rounds on social media amid the Nepal protests. He also said that instability in Nepal poses several threats to India’s interests.

In an opinion piece written for NDTV, Tharoor said, “What can we not avoid worrying about? Instability in Nepal poses several direct and indirect threats to India's interests. Security is foremost among them. An open border with Nepal is both a boon and a bane. Political chaos and a breakdown of law and order can lead to a surge in cross-border smuggling, human trafficking, and an increase in the activities of anti-India elements. The potential for a security vacuum in Nepal could be exploited by hostile actors, particularly Pakistan's ISI, to foment trouble in India.”

He said that the growing influence of China through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also a concern, and the clout of India has been waning in a politically unstable Nepal. “At the same time, it's apparent that the young rebels in Nepal are wary of any perceived "India hand" or "China hand" in their internal politics,” he said.

Tharoor, referred to the ‘same toolkit’ theory that suggests similarities between the regime changes in South Asian countries, raising suspicions of a larger, coordinated effort by the West to destabilise the region. “I tend to be sceptical of most conspiracy theories - the world is often more susceptible to random events than the paranoiacs believe - India must of course bear such concerns in mind and monitor these developments closely,” he said.

“A policy of non-interference – essential to show arms-length respect for the internal affairs of a sovereign neighbour – must be balanced with a proactive, yet subtle, strategy to safeguard our interests,” he said, adding that India must avoid micromanaging Nepal’s internal politics. Past attempts have been counterproductive, he added.

Nevertheless, India must focus on Nepal’s development and its own ‘soft power’, instead of political meddling. India must complete existing projects on time, invest in new ones, promote educational and cultural exchanges, open new channels of communication, and understand aspirations and grievances.

Tharoor added that India must, even so, heighten vigilance across the border to prevent spillover of violence or infiltration.

“New Delhi must understand the deep-seated anger that led to this uprising and respond with a nuanced, long-term strategy that prioritises mutual respect, economic cooperation, and security, while leaving the political heavy-lifting to the Nepali people themselves,” he said, adding that that’s what taxpayers pay diplomats for – to strike the right balance with other countries.