Military historian Tom Cooper: 'US strike came too late. Iranians had already shifted uranium, evacuated Fordow'

The US strike on Iran's key nuclear sites may have caused structural damage — but it likely came too late, according to military analyst Tom Cooper. In an exclusive conversation with India Today, Cooper said the Fordow facility - deep inside a mountain - had already been evacuated and buried before the American attack.

"Six GBU-57s that have been dropped on Fordow have hit the mountain some 960 meters [high], quite close to the peak and quite close to each other. So it is very likely that the bombs have detonated quite deep under the surface and probably caused some damage to the Fordow facility," Cooper said.

However, he noted: "Already two days before the US strike the facility was already evacuated, which means that Iranians have taken out everything valuable, especially enriched uranium, perhaps also all the equipment. And then they have buried — literally with thousands of tons of gravel and earth — the entrances to the facility. It means whatever the Americans have targeted, well, it was not particularly effective in the sense of stopping Iranian capability to enrich uranium. They have denied it at most."

Fordow was one of three nuclear sites struck in what the Pentagon called the largest B-2 operational strike in US history, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. The US military confirmed that 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) were dropped on Fordow and Natanz, followed by Tomahawk missile strikes on the surface-level facility in Isfahan.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said: "This was a highly classified mission with very few people in Washington knowing the timing or nature of this plan." He confirmed that more than 125 aircraft, including B-2 bombers, fighter jets, and surveillance planes, took part in the mission, which involved more than 75 precision-guided weapons. "Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction," he said.

But Cooper challenged the operational significance of the strike. On Natanz, he said: "Israel claimed the nuclear facility in Natanz, the oldest nuclear enrichment facility in Iran, 30 meters under the ground, was destroyed. If this was true, why have the Americans bombed the same facility with two GBU-57s? Nobody knows."

He said satellite photographs show one impact at the Natanz facility. "That means that both bombs hit the same place, which means almost certainly they have punched through and destroyed one of the two holes, but the other hole is still intact."

As for Isfahan, Cooper said: "This is the overground facility. Here, the Israelis have also claimed to have destroyed this facility, and then it turns out the Americans need 30 cruise missiles to destroy it. So obviously Israeli claims are exaggerated. Whatever the Americans have deployed and destroyed over there — it was already too late. Because the Iranians have evacuated on time. That is the conclusion from a military point of view. US strikes came much too late."

On the broader question of Iran's nuclear intentions, Cooper said the future is uncertain: "Presently the answer is unknown. For example, in the Majlis [Iranian parliament], there was talk about abandoning the NPT, but the parliament did not bring a final decision. It has just forwarded this decision to the National Security Council in Tehran."

"Now everybody's waiting... what are they going to decide. They apparently cannot decide what to do next because the Supreme Leader is out of touch most of the time. Mossad is running a manhunt after him, they are trying to assassinate him, and he has already survived several assassination attempts in the last few days. So the Iranians have a problem to communicate with him."

"If they decide to abandon the NPT, then yes — they are going to continue enriching somewhere else, under hidden super-secret circumstances, and then nobody can say what are they going to manage, how soon, or whatever else."