‘Modi can break Iran deadlock’: US expert calls Pakistan mediation ‘ludicrous nonsense’

India could play a pivotal role in easing tensions in the ongoing Iran conflict even as questions mount over Pakistan’s credibility as a mediator, geopolitical expert Col (Retd) Douglas MacGregor said in a detailed interaction. 

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Dismissing Islamabad’s reported attempts to broker talks between the US and Iran, MacGregor said, “for the Pakistanis to offer help is sort of like a man who is in a burning building offering you a spare room in the building.” He added that Pakistan “is not going to be viewed in any way, shape or form as neutral” by Israel and termed any attempt to host negotiations there as “just ludicrous nonsense.” 

Instead, he pointed to India as a credible interlocutor. MacGregor in an interaction with ANI said Prime Minister Narendra Modi “is in a position to offer real help, support, and assistance.” He underscored that India’s global standing and balanced ties across major powers make it uniquely placed to facilitate dialogue. 

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MacGregor also stressed that the broader geopolitical context is rapidly shifting, noting that “the entire global order is now being renegotiated,” with trade routes, alliances and energy systems undergoing real-time changes. He warned that the conflict is unlikely to end quickly and could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly through rising energy costs. 

On the military front, he expressed deep skepticism about any potential US invasion of Iran, citing geographic and technological challenges. Referring to the Strait of Hormuz, he said, “How are you going to take this and control it? Where do you put soldiers or Marines to control anything?” He added that modern warfare capabilities, including satellite-linked missile systems, give Iran significant defensive advantages. 

MacGregor cautioned that escalation could backfire, stating, “If we go forward, as I think we will, and we take losses and we look ridiculous, it'll be that much harder to negotiate some sort of agreement in the aftermath.” 

He further argued that Iran is unlikely to concede under pressure, noting, “I don't think they're going to give into anything at this stage.” The ongoing strikes between Israel and Iran, despite talk of ceasefire negotiations, reflect the widening gap between rhetoric and ground realities. 

On the economic fallout, he warned of a cascading impact driven by energy prices. “When fuel goes up, fertilizer goes up, food goes up… all these prices rise simultaneously,” he said, adding that global equity markets could see sharp declines if the crisis persists. 

MacGregor also questioned the coherence of US strategy, suggesting internal contradictions and miscalculations. He said President Donald Trump faces a difficult path forward after underestimating the scale of the conflict, and warned against further escalation driven by political optics. 

He advocated for immediate de-escalation, urging Washington to disengage militarily and pursue talks. “We are no longer going to attack Iran… and we would like very much to talk to Iran and find a way forward,” he said, outlining what he believes should be the US approach. 

While acknowledging that India cannot guarantee outcomes, MacGregor maintained that it can help narrow differences and create conditions for dialogue. He suggested reducing negotiation demands to a few key points to enable a ceasefire framework. 

The conflict, he concluded, is no longer a limited regional issue but a major global crisis with economic and strategic consequences, requiring urgent diplomatic intervention.