Trump's hidden win in Iran war? How US could gain in semiconductors race

The Iran conflict may be doing more than disrupting oil markets - it could be reshaping the global semiconductor ecosystem in ways that benefit the United States.

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Anas Alhajji, energy economist and the former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management, said the biggest impact of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption may not be crude prices alone, but the breakdown of critical industrial supply chains that underpins Asia's manufacturing dominance.

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In an exclusive interview with India Today TV, Alhajji pointed to helium - a key input in semiconductor manufacturing - as a critical vulnerability. "If we talk about helium, for example, 35% of the world's helium is traded through the Strait of Hormuz. You cannot make computer chips or semiconductors without helium," he said.

The energy expert said the impact would be disproportionately severe in Asia. "This is one of the problems for South Korea, for Taiwan, and for China; this is a serious problem because I said 35% globally, but really, when you look at Asia, it is more than 90%."

In that context, he argued that the geopolitical outcome could favour Washington. "The biggest winner of all is Trump and the United States, followed by Putin and then some other countries that are very far away."

The reasoning, he said, lies in how the disruption could accelerate shifts in industrial geography. The United States has long sought to bring semiconductor manufacturing back home, supported by policy measures and investments aimed at reducing reliance on Asia.

"The main beneficiary is the United States on several fronts because Trump wanted the computer chip making to move to the United States. He wants the semiconductors to be made in the United States, not in South Korea, not in Taiwan, not in China."

"So, they achieved that objective through blocking the helium out of it. And then when it comes to methanol, for example, that's another issue. The United States is the largest producer of helium, the largest producer of methanol, the largest producer of oil, the largest producer of natural gas, and the largest producer of LG, and all of them are blocked. All of them."

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that the tightened supply of helium due to Hormuz closure had started affecting some production in the global tech supply chains.

Helium is used ‌in several key stages of chipmaking, including cooling, leak detection and precision manufacturing processes, and its prices have soared since the West Asia crisis began.

Supply of helium, a byproduct of natural ​gas processing, is highly concentrated geographically, with Qatar producing nearly one-third ​of the world's supply, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

"A ⁠helium shortage is an absolute concern," said Cameron Johnson, senior partner at supply ​chain consultancy Tidal Wave Solutions, at Semicon China in Shanghai. He said companies had few immediate options beyond slowing output and prioritising critical products, adding that many were hoping for a quick resolution. Prolonged shortages could force production cuts ​and ripple through industries from electronics to automobiles, Johnson added.

On Thursday, Alhajji warned that if this war doesn't end soon, the global economy would collapse by early May. When asked about his prediction, he said the Hormuz disruption extends across sectors, not just energy.

Fertilisers, LPG, and shipping bottlenecks could combine to hit agriculture, industry, and logistics simultaneously. "So you add all of this together, and we have no replacement. You can see where we are heading."

Alhajji warned that the knock-on effects through supply chains could be more damaging than the direct shock. "When that supply chain is affected, we have serious problems because, as you know, for example, phones or cars are manufactured in several countries. So one piece of that car or one piece of that phone basically, that cannot be made, the whole supply chain will stop."

He described the potential fallout as unprecedented. "Absolutely. And it is larger than any crisis we have seen in our lifetime...this is larger than anything we have ever seen because Hormuz had never been closed."