What are the implications of Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race?

Following a poor debate performance last month, President Joe Biden faced mounting pressure to withdraw as the 2024 Democratic Party nominee. On Sunday, he made the decision to step down, a move that came as a surprise to many.

A host of elected officials, including prominent Congress members Rep. Adam Schiff and Sen. Jon Tester, had publicly called for Biden to withdraw. Concerns about his ability to win in November were compounded by private doubts from figures like former President Barack Obama and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. Reports indicated that Obama had privately expressed concerns about Biden’s electability, while Pelosi warned that Biden's continued candidacy could jeopardize the Democrats' chances of securing a House majority.

Biden’s abrupt withdrawal has raised several key questions about the future of the Democratic nomination:

Finding a Replacement

The immediate question is who will replace Biden as the Democratic nominee. Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, following his announcement on X, formerly known as Twitter. Harris, a former Senator from California and the first female, African-American, and Asian-American Vice President, has served under Biden for the past 3.5 years, focusing on immigration and women’s health issues.

However, Biden cannot unilaterally appoint the next nominee. The decision will ultimately be made by delegates and superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Other potential candidates include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Process of Replacing Biden

Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee on March 12, after winning Georgia’s primary and surpassing the 1,968 delegate threshold. His nomination will not be official until delegates cast their votes at the DNC, scheduled for August 19-22 in Chicago. However, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has suggested the possibility of a virtual roll call vote due to ballot access concerns in Ohio, though no date has been set.

With Biden’s withdrawal, delegates become free agents. Fourteen states have laws binding delegates to vote according to their primary allocation, but 12 of these states permit delegates to be released if a candidate withdraws. In the event of an open convention, delegates would vote in multiple rounds until a new candidate secures a majority. Superdelegates, who are prominent party figures, would also vote if the process extends beyond the first round.

Impact on Campaign Finances

As of May, Biden’s campaign had over $90 million in funds. If Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, this money could be directly transferred to her campaign. If another candidate is chosen, transferring the funds could be complex. Biden could move the money to the DNC, but the committee would be subject to Federal Election Commission (FEC) spending limits. Alternatively, Biden could shift the funds into a Political Action Committee (PAC), which, while not subject to FEC limits, faces restrictions on collusion with campaigns and would be scrutinized.

Ballot Access Concerns

Once a replacement is selected, the new nominee could face challenges with ballot access. Many U.S. states have deadlines in August for ballot access, with most states allowing parties to replace a candidate by September 6. While it is not unprecedented for a party to nominate a candidate after a state’s deadline, the DNC could face legal challenges that might slow down the process and create confusion among voters. The Heritage Foundation has indicated that it may file lawsuits in states like Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin if the nominee is not Biden.