BTS | India’s Growth Under Pressure? | US Tariffs, Business Confidence & FY26 Slowdown

India is projected to remain the fastest-growing large economy in FY26, with GDP growth estimated between 6% and 6.5%, and is set to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest economy this year. But six months into the fiscal, the signs of a slowdown are hard to ignore. The latest Business Today Cover Story takes a close look at the findings of the BT-C Fore Business Confidence Index, which surveyed 500 CEOs and CFOs. While India Inc is buoyed by good rains, falling inflation, lower interest rates and tax cuts, corporate sentiment remains cautious, with business confidence still below the long-term average. Adding to the uncertainty is US President Donald Trump’s tariff action—25% on Indian exports and additional penalties on oil imports from Russia—putting pressure on trade and industry. With exports under stress, growth slower than past years, and global risks from geopolitics and supply shocks, the mid-year economic outlook for FY26 raises critical questions: Where is growth headed, and how will India Inc navigate the challenges ahead?