China covid crisis: Why experts feel that India should not panic

Amid the surging wave of new Covid-19 cases in China, India has initiated precautionary measures to keep any outbreak at bay. The Union Health Ministry has already alerted the states to follow a close Covid-19 surveillance strategy released in June so that the government can chase an early detection of unusual patterns of illness. 

On Saturday, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya launched the Air Suvidha portal for passengers arriving from China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Thailand. He said RT-PCR tests will now be made mandatory for them. “After arriving in India, if they test positive, they'll be quarantined,” he said. 

India has already reported 4 confirmed cases of the new BF.7 variant of Omicron, which is behind the sudden surge in cases in China. The BF.7 is an Omicron's subvariant, which has been in transmission for almost a year and has hit many countries so far besides China.

According to World Health Organization (WHO), BF.7, which is a shorter term for BA.5.2.1.7, is the fastest spreading Covid virus.  Cases of BF.7 subvariant hit the US in October, while in the UK over 7 per cent of the cases were of this variant. 

How worried should India be? 

BF.7 is the most infectious variant yet with a shorter incubation period and is reportedly responsible for the sudden surge in China. As per news reports, the January 2022 wave in India was due to the BA.1 and BA.2 sub-variants of Omicron. The sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5, which followed after that wave, never grew to an alarming number in India as compared to European countries. Following this, BF.7 too had little impact in India. Only four cases were reported, which were treated successfully. 

“After the January wave, India didn’t report any major outbreak. This is mostly because of our successful vaccination drive. India has managed to cover over 88 per cent of its adult population, as of November 2022, through its vaccination drive. And this is the reason, BF.7 could not make any strong impact in India. Within a year of the pandemic, India first rolled out Covid vaccines for doctors, healthcare, and frontline workers in January, and those above 60 years of age and over 45 with comorbidities in March 2021. This gradually covered most of the population. This was phenomenal,” said Dr Rommel Tickoo, Director, Internal Medicine, Max Super Speciality Hospital, Saket, Delhi. 

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Experts say that the sudden surge in China is not due to the higher transmissibility of the BF.7 variant, but mostly because the Chinese didn’t develop any herd immunity.
Dr Tickoo added: “Indians have hybrid immunity due to the wide coverage of vaccination, and there is no reason to panic. Of course, precautions are needed. Masks should be on for all, and intense screening of tourists and foreign travellers and visitors should be done to avoid any emergency. Also, it is very important to track the genome sequencing to avoid a sudden outbreak.” 

India's average daily Covid-19 case count has been going down over the past few weeks. On Saturday, India reported 201 new coronavirus cases in the last 24  hours. The current tally is 4.46 crore, while the active cases increased to 3,397. 

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“Precautions are must at this time as the cases are low. If you have any respiratory infection, stay home, and avoid going to parties. Masks should be made mandatory, and on any day, if possible avoid crowds. The testing should be done. People can also opt for the nasal vaccines which are even available at the private hospitals,” said Dr. Preeti Goyal, Medical Director, vHealth by Aetna.  

"While China has witnessed a sudden surge in covid cases, India has demonstrated a decline and control. While our natural exposure and successful vaccine drives would surely help us, we must stay cautious. Without getting excessively paranoid, preparations to effectively combat the challenge needs to start. This can be achieved only through seamless cooperation between the government, healthcare industry, diagnostic sector, and the public. Government-mandated rules such as wearing masks in crowded places, social distancing, and maintaining disciplined hygiene must be adhered to stringently by the general public,” said Dr Nilesh Shah, President and Chief of Science & Innovation, Metropolis Healthcare Ltd.