India is likely to see a surge in COVID-19 cases in August and the new wave of the pandemic will peak in October, as per a mathematical model which correctly predicted the fall in cases during India's deadly second wave.
However, the next wave will see lower number of daily new cases, as per the estimates of researchers led by IIT Hyderabad's Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and IIT Kanpur's Manindra Agrawal.
In the best case scenario, India will see 1 lakh daily infections during the next COVID-19 wave, while daily infection numbers would be at about 1.5 lakh in the worst case scenario, they said. At the peak of second wave, India reported about 4 lakh daily new cases in May this year.
States with high Covid rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could "skew the picture," Bloomberg quoted Vidyasagar as saying in an email.
While the number of daily new COVID-19 cases have stabilised at about 40,000 in the country, the highly-contagious Delta variant, first identified in India and believed to be the reason behind the second wave, is spreading fast in countries across the world.
As states relax restrictions and open up for economic activities, there are concerns that it may lead to rise in new infections. The focus now is on vaccination and tracking of positive cases.
On Monday, India registered 40,134 fresh COVID-19 infections, pushing the total tally to 3,16,95,958, while the number of active cases recorded an increase for the sixth consecutive day. The country has so far administered 47.22 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses.
Edited by Rupashree Ravi
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