SBI (State Bank of India) Research in its latest report says the phase 1 vaccination covering 30 crore people will cost Rs 21,000-27,000 crore. The second phase, involving another 50 crore, will need additional Rs 35,000-45,000 crore, it says. This is around 0.3-0.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The government aims to vaccinate 30 crore priority individuals by August 2021 and 50 crore private individuals by 2022-end. SBI estimates the administration cost at Rs 100-150 per dose and cost per dose of Rs 250-300 per person to the government by Serum Institute of India, whose vaccine 'Covishield' has been approved for emergency use. This means the per person cost would be around Rs 700-900.
Bharat Biotech, which has also received approval from the drug regulators, has said the cost of its vaccine would be lower than Rs 100 per dose, though it is yet to come up with a definitive price of its vaccine.
The SBI think tank says India will require around Rs 56,000-72,000 crore to administer vaccines to 80 crore people.
Among the macro-economic indicators, there has been a continuous improvement in December 2020, and the level has increased compared to not only the pre-covid level but peak too, data suggests. "Percentage of leading indicators showing acceleration has increased to 86 per cent indicating pick-up in momentum," says the SBI report.
Fiscal deficit has surged to 135.1 percent of FY21 BE, or Rs 10.75 lakh crore at the end of Nov'20. But it's likely to come down with improvement in tax revenues.
Besides, states have earned Rs 3.73 lakh crore in SGST (state goods and services tax), IGST (integrated goods and services tax) and cess till December, around 13 per cent less than the same period last year. "The gap between last year and this year's cumulative revenue is narrowing as GST collections improve," the SBI think tank says. These opinions are of the SBI Research team and do not reflect those of the bank or its subsidiaries.
GST collections in December 2020 showed an unexpected year-on-year growth of 11.6 per cent to Rs 1.15 lakh crore, the highest monthly GST collection so far.