Aksai for Arunachal: Strike a deal with China, Sushant Sareen urges amid India-US tensions

Amid escalating tensions with the US over tariffs, security analyst Sushant Sareen has proposed a thought: what if India and China struck a deal, trading Aksai Chin for Arunachal Pradesh? In fact, the deal Sareen is referring to was first proposed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai to then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru during and after Zhou's India visit from 19–25 April 1960. This led to further rounds of talks and was known as the "package deal".

In his post on Thursday, Sareen posed, "Here is a tantalizing if also controversial thought in these fraught times: what if the Chinese grab the opportunity offered to them on a platter by mad hatters of MAGA to settle their problems with India in a give and take spirit. Both countries open up to each other in a big way and benefit mutually. It would sound the death knell for US and EU in Asia."

Sareen, however, acknowledged the difficulty of the idea, emphasising that China might be unlikely to seize such an opportunity. He explained, "The Chinese are unlikely to step up to grab this opportunity to restore civilizational ties with India for mutual benefit, security." He further stressed the long-standing historical and cultural ties between the two nations, adding, "There are remarkable cultural and civilizational bonds that both share, including vegetarian food which is absolutely top class in China."

In his commentary, Sareen noted that such a deal could benefit both nations, reducing external dependencies and shifting the balance of power in Asia. He, however, pointed out that the Chinese leadership's mindset would have to evolve for this to become a reality, though he felt that change seemed unlikely.

"I also know what the Mad MAGA and loony left in West stands for, is doing and will do. So have no blinkers. Don't fall for praise or niceties. Don't listen to NRIs. They will stand with India if the going is good but will scoot if it gets tough. It is a cruel world in which we can only rely on our own strength which we need to build up," he concluded.

Sareen's came just a day after US President Donald trump escalated its tariff war against India, imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods. This dramatic hike in duties comes after India's continued imports of Russian oil. The 50% tariff on India is the highest for any nation, with Brazil being the only other country similarly penalized. Meanwhile, China faces a 30% tariff, and Turkey a 15% tariff, reflecting the uneven nature of the trade penalties.

China's border deal proposal was revised and brought up again by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, first to Indian Foreign Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee during his 1979 trip to China, and later to successive prime ministers, including Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. The proposal's essential form was: India accepts Chinese control over Aksai Chin in the west; China accepts Indian control over Arunachal in the east.