Break TMC or resign? The options before Mamata's rebel MPs

The TMC's troubles show no signs of abating since the West Bengal Assembly elections. After the rebellion of nearly 60 of 80 MLAs, fourteen TMC MPs have declared their rebellion against Mamata Banerjee. The large number of TMC MPs rebelling against Mamata Banerjee will have political implications not only for Bengal but also for the country.

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Fourteen TMC MPs arrived at the residence of BJP leader and Union Minister Bhupendra Yadav, where West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari and BJP leader and former Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Deb were present.

Rajya Sabha MP Sukhendu Shekhar resigned from his Rajya Sabha membership and the TMC on Monday.

Following this, five TMC MPs visited Sukhendu Shekhar. Subsequently, it emerged that 14 TMC MPs were meeting at Bhupendra Yadav's residence.

This raises the question: will the 14 TMC MPs resign like Sukhendu Shekhar, or will they break away from the party?

Will TMC MPs resign?

The first and legally clearest path for TMC MPs is to submit their resignations to the Speaker of the Lok Sabha, similar to Sukhendu Shekhar's resignation to the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha. After this, they will try their luck in the electoral fray. Resigning as an MP will not disqualify them under the anti-defection law. After this, each MP will be able to join the BJP or any other party at will.

However, resigning will immediately result in the loss of their MPship, and by-elections will be held for those seats. The mood in Bengal is in favor of the BJP, but winning the by-elections will be a crucial test for these MPs. If they lose, they will be out of Parliament, but if they succeed in winning, they could become partners in power.

Breaking the Party and Forming a New Faction: Can the 14 TMC MPs who held a meeting at a BJP leader's house break the TMC? Under the 10th Schedule of the Indian Constitution (the anti-defection law), a two-thirds majority (2/3) of MPs must come together to legally split a party.

The TMC currently has 28 Lok Sabha MPs in Parliament. This number of 14 Lok Sabha MPs is insufficient to reach the two-thirds mark. Splitting the party or forming a new faction without gathering the TMC's 19 Lok Sabha MPs is considered a politically risky move. If these MPs claim to form a separate faction without a two-thirds majority, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha will disqualify them. This means that 'splitting the party' appears to be legally impossible with this number. In such a situation, the case of the rebel TMC MPs could become complicated.

Violating the Whip and Facing Disqualification

These Lok Sabha MPs could violate the TMC's official whip within the House, such as voting in favor of the government on important legislation or going against the party. In doing so, the TMC leadership would recommend that the Speaker of the Lok Sabha revoke their membership.

After being disqualified, these MPs will become former MPs and will have to contest elections and return within the next six months. Many rebel leaders choose this option to portray themselves as "martyrs."

What will be the rebel MPs' next step?

Political circles are buzzing that the country's ruling party may be behind these 14 TMC MPs. In such a situation, these leaders' strategy will be very deliberate. The rebel group's leaders are currently consulting legal experts to avoid immediate termination of their membership. They may reveal their strategy during the Parliament session.

The path ahead for these 14 rebel MPs of Mamata Banerjee is fraught with obstacles. In such a situation, splitting the party without a two-thirds majority is impossible, and resigning means risking their political careers. Now it remains to be seen whether these MPs adopt a "go it alone" strategy or begin their new political innings under the umbrella of a major national party.