Congress’s Karnataka bypoll triumph shows why Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar's are Congress's golden boys

November 23 was certainly bad for Congress as it was decimated in Maharashtra. But in Karnataka, where three bypolls was up for grabs, Congress swept the bypolls for three Assembly seats—Channapatna, Shiggaon, and Sandur—highlighting its enduring appeal among key voter bases. The results, while consistent with the trend favouring ruling parties in by-elections, hold considerable implications for the state’s political landscape and the leadership dynamics within the Congress.

Congress Triumphs Despite Challenges

The Congress’s comprehensive victory in these bypolls comes amid internal challenges and sustained attacks by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s government, which has faced criticism over intra-party tensions and governance issues, proved its mettle by securing all three seats, reinforcing its grip on Karnataka’s political terrain a year and a half into its tenure.

The Congress wrested Channapatna and Shiggaon from the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] and BJP, respectively, while retaining Sandur. The party’s decisive victories in constituencies spread across the state underscore its success in maintaining the support of backward classes, Dalits, and minorities, a coalition pivotal to its 2023 Assembly election triumph.

Implications for Leadership

The results are a morale boost for both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar. Siddaramaiah’s leadership received a significant endorsement, particularly with the Congress’s unexpected victory in Shiggaon, a BJP bastion previously held by former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. Meanwhile, Shivakumar’s role in securing Channapatna, a JD(S) stronghold, solidifies his standing as a prominent Vokkaliga leader. This victory came at the expense of JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy, whose family has traditionally commanded loyalty in the region.

Decoding the Constituency Battles

Channapatna: A Blow to JD(S)

The contest in Channapatna, marked by a direct face-off between Congress candidate C.P. Yogeshwar and JD(S) scion Nikhil Kumaraswamy, delivered a crushing defeat to the latter. Yogeshwar, a seasoned local politician, capitalised on his grassroots appeal and the support of Shivakumar to secure 54% of the votes, up from 40% in 2023. The JD(S) saw its vote share plummet by 6%, with Nikhil’s defeat attributed to his tendency to switch constituencies and the JD(S)’s growing estrangement from Muslim voters following its alliance with the BJP.

“People voted for me despite the presence of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, which signifies their rejection of dynastic politics,” Yogeshwar remarked post-victory, reported Indian Express. In contrast, Nikhil acknowledged his defeat with humility, vowing to remain committed to his constituency.

Shiggaon: Cracking a BJP Fortress

The Congress’s victory in Shiggaon, a Lingayat-dominated constituency, stunned political observers. Yasir Ahmed Pathan, the Congress candidate, defeated BJP’s Bharat Bommai, son of Basavaraj Bommai, with a 52% vote share, marking a 17-point surge from 2023. This victory reflected the Congress’s effective consolidation of backward classes, Dalits, and minorities—groups collectively known as AHINDA.

The BJP’s reliance on the goodwill generated by Bommai’s late father, S.R. Bommai, proved insufficient. “This defeat is a rejection of the BJP’s communal politics,” Siddaramaiah declared, attributing the win to the Congress’s welfare schemes and grassroots outreach.

Sandur: Retaining Strongholds

In Sandur, the Congress retained its seat with a comfortable margin of 9,649 votes. The constituency, located in North Karnataka, has been a reliable stronghold for the party. This win further cemented the Congress’s presence in a region where backward classes and Dalits form a significant portion of the electorate.

The Decline of JD(S) and BJP Infighting

The JD(S) finds itself in a precarious position, grappling with declining voter confidence. Its alliance with the BJP appears to have alienated its traditional Muslim support base, further eroding its appeal. Kumaraswamy’s controversial remarks against Muslims post-2023 polls are believed to have contributed to this fallout, as evidenced by his son Nikhil’s third consecutive electoral defeat.

As reported by Indian Express, meanwhile, the BJP is facing internal strife in the wake of its bypoll losses. Senior leader Basanagouda Patil Yatnal openly criticised the leadership of state party president B.Y. Vijayendra and his father, former CM B.S. Yediyurappa. “The people have rejected them,” Yatnal declared, calling for intervention from the central leadership.

Looking Ahead

The bypoll results reaffirm the Congress’s robust position in Karnataka, with its welfare initiatives such as the “five guarantees” resonating among the electorate. For Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, the victories represent not just validation but an opportunity to strengthen their leadership ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.

Conversely, the BJP and JD(S) must grapple with the dual challenges of internal discord and diminishing voter bases. The results underscore the evolving political dynamics in Karnataka, with the Congress consolidating its dominance while its rivals face existential questions.