'Don't be surprised if Trump shows up in Delhi': Ex-Ambassador says US will stay India's key partner

Former Ambassador Ajay Bisaria has predicted that the United States will continue to be India's key strategic partner despite recent tensions over Washington's 50% tariff on New Delhi. He speculated that in the next few months, India and the US are likely to finalise a trade deal, and "don't be surprised if Trump shows in November in India for the Quad summit and signs the biggest deal of the century as he will spin it."

Bisaria pointed to the recent volatility in US-India relations, particularly after the US imposed 25% duties on Indian goods, and an additional 25% for India's purchase of Russian oil. He explained that this sudden move was part of Trump's broader strategy of negotiations.

"There were the art of two deals that were happening. He was playing chicken with India, trying to get a better deal than the one we had negotiated in five rounds. And then he was trying to get a deal out of Putin in Russia. And India became collateral damage," he said during a panel discussion on geopolitical shifts. 

However, Bisaria observed that India's proactive diplomatic approach, which included showcasing Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tianjin, sent a clear message to the US.

"India made a short-term projection of optics. The message was that if the US pushes this relationship too much, India can live in a world bypassing the United States. India is capable of doing that," he said. He suggested that this messaging helped ease tensions and has allowed for a more comfortable diplomatic environment between the two nations since September.

Looking ahead, Bisaria was optimistic about the future of US-India relations, noting that Trump's recent rhetoric had been softer than it was earlier. "The new US ambassador to India is being confirmed, and Trump is making politer noises than he did in the past," he added. Bisaria speculated that this shift in tone would likely lead to a trade deal between the two countries soon.

On India's broader geopolitical vision, Bisaria stressed that India's priorities for the next two decades were clear. By 2047, India aspires to become a developed economy with a GDP of $30 trillion and a per capita income of $15,000 to $20,000. He also pointed out that, while India's primary strategic partner will remain the United States, Russia and the European Union will continue to be crucial partners, and China will remain a strategic competitor.

"India wants to be a pole in this evolving global order, not a rule-taker," Bisaria stated. He noted that although the US is not fully a trusted partner due to its volatility, India would continue to hedge its relationship with the US while managing its complex relationship with China. "The US is not a fully trusted partner, it's a volatile country, and India will have its hedging strategies there," Bisaria said. 

When it comes to China, the former diplomat pointed out that India should focus on tactical adjustments rather than strategic resets. "India will continue to look at adjusting with China-not just on the border and the Pakistan question but also on ensuring that the trade goes on unmolested."