El Niño emerges in India? Weak monsoon is one of the initial indicators

Monsoon in India: India’s unusually weak monsoon onset is emerging as one of the first clear signs of the newly formed El Niño weather phenomenon, with rainfall deficits expected to persist through the crucial crop-sowing season and potentially weigh on agricultural and industrial activity.

According to a report in Bloomberg that cited data from India Meteorological Department, monsoon rainfall across the country was nearly 40% below normal as of Wednesday. The June-September monsoon season accounts for the bulk of India’s annual rainfall, making its early performance critical for farming, water supplies and economic activity, it said.

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The weak start offers an early indication of how El Niño, which has recently emerged and is expected by US scientists to become one of the strongest on record, is beginning to influence global weather patterns. El Niño has historically been associated with drier conditions across South Asia, and current weather models indicate that below-normal rainfall could continue through July and August, particularly across northwest and central India.

The delayed and deficient rains are already affecting key agricultural regions. Farmers are currently in the midst of the country’s most important planting season, with crops such as rice, soybeans and groundnuts dependent on timely rainfall. 

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According to Fergus Keatinge, vice president at Marcus Weather Inc., crop-weather alerts have already flagged severe dry conditions in soybean- and groundnut-growing areas, the report said. He added that the unseasonal dryness could persist into July, potentially delaying soybean planting and shortening the growing season.

Monsoon rains are vital not only for agriculture but also for sectors such as energy and construction. India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, and poor harvests could raise the risk of export restrictions.

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Meteorologists expect some improvement in rainfall next week as moist southwesterly winds help the monsoon advance northward into early July. However, broader weather conditions are expected to remain unfavorable beyond that period.