Monsoon 2026: India to get below normal rainfall. Is strong El Nino the culprit?

India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through the second half of 2026 as a strong El Niño event develops over the Pacific Ocean, according to the latest outlook from the APEC Climate Centre (APCC).

In its monthly forecast released on Monday, the APCC said there is a 99.4% probability of strong El Niño conditions prevailing from July to December. The climate centre’s outlook points to a significantly increased risk of deficient rainfall across India during both the southwest monsoon season and the northeast monsoon period.

“The presence of strong El Niño conditions is likely to lead to a strongly enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall over India from July to September, and an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation from October to December,” the APCC said.

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The centre has maintained its El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook at the ‘El Niño’ alert level, indicating that the phenomenon is nearly established and expected to persist over the coming months. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are forecast to continue along the equatorial Pacific Ocean through December.

“Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to persist along the equator from July to December, with a clear indication of the developing El Niño,” the report said.

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The ENSO index is projected to rise from 1.97 degrees Celsius in July to as high as 3.14 degrees Celsius by December, suggesting a strong and sustained warming event. According to the APCC, El Niño conditions carry a 100% probability during the forecast period.

El Niño typically develops when sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal and remain elevated for an extended period, accompanied by corresponding changes in atmospheric circulation. The phenomenon is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and drier conditions across India.

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Apart from rainfall concerns, the APCC also expects unusually warm conditions across the Indian subcontinent and surrounding ocean regions. The probability of above-normal temperatures is considered “strongly enhanced” over India and the Indian Ocean during July-September and is expected to remain elevated during October-December.

The forecast suggests that rainfall could remain below normal during the entire southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September, as well as during the northeast monsoon season between October and December.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also highlighted the growing likelihood of El Niño development. “Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning to El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” the weather department said, adding that most international climate models indicate a 92% probability of El Niño during the monsoon season.