'Family under pressure': Shamika Ravi links India's fertility fall to crumbling support systems

India's urban women face a significantly wider gap between desired and actual fertility than their rural counterparts, underscoring how family structures and support systems shape reproductive outcomes, according to Shamika Ravi, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, and Sindhuja Penumarty.

Drawing on data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), Ravi and Penumarty note in a piece in Mint that the desired number of children has remained stable at 2.2 in rural areas and 2 in urban areas. However, the gap between desired and actual fertility is 0.4 in urban areas compared with 0.1 in rural areas. "Urban parents are more dependent on formal, and expensive (or missing) childcare systems and face greater challenges in achieving a work-life balance," they write.

The authors argue that viewing fertility only through an economic lens misses deeper structural shifts. They point to Sweden, where despite family-friendly policies, 17% of people expect to have fewer children than their ideal, higher than the all-country average of 11%. "This suggests that even if established economic burdens ease, psychological, cultural and structural factors still affect fertility outcomes," they note.

In India, rapid urbanisation and the breakdown of traditional family support systems have intensified parenting responsibilities, particularly for women. They further said nuclearisation of families and rampant urbanisation across the country have eroded the institutional arrangement of the traditional family that encouraged and supported the bearing and rearing of children.

"The ethos of 'It takes a village to raise a child' has been replaced by struggling urban couples whose fertility-aspiration barriers are not strictly financial, but increasingly social and logistical," Ravi and Penumarty observe. By contrast, rural communities still provide extended family and community support, which helps women reconcile fertility and work aspirations.

Labour force participation data reinforces this divide: 42% of rural women participate in the workforce compared with 25% of urban women. Yet urban women's fertility rates have already fallen below replacement level for two decades. Despite higher workforce engagement, rural women benefit from family networks that share child-rearing responsibilities, allowing them to exercise greater reproductive agency.

The authors caution that economic prosperity alone cannot close the fertility gap. "The gap between desired and actual fertility widens with rising wealth levels, thereby challenging the assumption that economic limitations are the primary barriers," they write.

They stress that while policies supporting childcare, parental leave and financial assistance are essential, "the ability of contractual market institutions or the government to function as a replacement for family support remains limited, as the experience of affluent nations shows."

Ravi and Penumarty emphasise that India must "grow rich before growing old" by planning for demographic shifts, strengthening reproductive health systems, and reinforcing the institution of family. "To discount the significant care-work within families is to discount the future of our society," they warn.