BSP, Bhim Army in the fray: Split in Dalit votes may hurt Congress in Haryana

The battle for the Dalit vote is heating up in Haryana. The Congress, which garnered the lion's share of Dalit votes in the recent Lok Sabha polls, may have some real task at hand, which is to prevent any possible split in the Dalit votes. The chances of such a split have increased as Mayawati's BSP has partnered with Abhay Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and Chandrasekhar Azad's Bhim Army has joined forces with Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). Both alliances are determined to make inroads into Haryana’s Dalit electorate.

The Importance of the Dalit Vote

According to the 2011 census, Dalits make up 20.2% of Haryana's population, with 17 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates. In rural areas, the SC population is even higher at 22.5%, compared to 15.8% in urban areas. Fatehabad (30.2%), Sirsa (29.9%), and Ambala (26.3%) have the highest concentrations of Dalits, while Mewat has the lowest (6.9%) followed by Faridabad (12.4%), and Gurugram (13.1%). 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP saw a huge slip in its Dalit votes, who moved towards Congress. About 68% of Dalit voters backed the INDIA bloc (Congress-AAP), a jump of more than 40%. Only 24 per cent of Dalits backed the saffron party, a drop of 34 per cent. As a result of the shift, the BJP lost five of the 10 parliamentary seats. Congress won both SC-reserved Lok Sabha seats - Ambala and Sirsa. However, this dominance may now be under threat from the BSP and Bhim Army, who have thrown their hats into the ring.

How BSP and Bhim Army Could Hurt Congress 

Amitabh Tiwari, a political analyst, writes in a detailed piece that in the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP won five of 17 reserved seats, the Congress seven, and the JJP four. Correspondingly, the saffron party bagged 33% of the reserved seat votes, the Congress 30%, the JJP 22%, the BSP 3%, and the INLD just 1%. 

Tiwari says that while the BSP's influence has diminished in the recent past, it damaged the prospects of runner-up in 18 seats, securing more votes than the margin of victory in 2019. The BSP damaged the Congress' prospects in seven seats, the BJP's in five, the JJP's in two, and other parties' prospects in four.

Now, the entry of Chandrasekhar Azad’s Bhim Army into the race for Dalit votes complicates the equation further. While Congress emerged as the biggest beneficiary of Dalit support in 2024, both Mayawati and Azad could pull enough votes to upset the party's chances in what is expected to be a close contest. 

The JJP-Bhim Army alliance, in particular, has the potential to attract younger Dalit voters, while the BSP-INLD partnership could chip away at the Congress traditional vote bank.

The Role of the Jatav Community

Among the SC groups, the Jatavs — who account for roughly half of the Dalit population — are particularly influential in Haryana. They have sizable population of more than 10% in 49 seats - 11 in Hisar, nine each in Ambala and Rohtak, eight in Gurugram, seven in Faridabad, and five in Karnal. 

In 2019, the BJP won 21 of these seats, the Congress 15, and the JJP bagged 8. However, in the 2024 general elections, the Congress-AAP alliance secured 68% of Dalit votes, giving it a clear edge. But with the JJP-Bhim Army and BSP-INLD alliances now eyeing the same voters, Congress would be facing an uphill task.